Tenth: History Lesson

Summary

Based on my previous experience, I have stuck to the notion that anything can happen in the markets. With this, I have forgotten a lesson that history tends to repeat itself. So even though anything could happen, I need to remember that there is a greater chance that something will happen again if it happened before. That's the whole game we are playing; we are betting on setups that have worked in the past. It's the only edge we got. 

Ticker: KMI

 

I was a fool for not looking at the past.

Note: It was VinnyB who alerted me to the history of this chart and I noted that it could have been a good short given the history. However, my long bias got to me after I couldn't resist how good the daily and intraday chart looked.

How the chart looked in the daily. I think I would have preferred a higher gap up to play the breakout.

Note: The daily looked good so I immediately had a long biased for this stock. 

Point of interest #1: This is an area I should be watching intraday to see what happens. 

I fucked up my entry initially because I was stupid. I missed the ascending triangle and tried to get in on the dip. My add was decent, but the chart just didn't work. I should have bailed as soon as it started forming a descending triangle. I say this based on the previous history of the chart.

Note: I could have been more active with this chart and got out earlier. However, since I was long biased, I was hoping for a saucer pattern. I haven't seen a saucer pattern in this market in a long time, so that is how bad my bias got.

Note: I expected the dip under $17.20 after seeing it so many times before. As long as it defended and bounced back, I was okay.

A more macro view of the chart.

Note: The first point of interest, $17.35,  got stuffed which meant it was weak. However, it got passed it later on.

Point of interest #2: Anything lower than this price, the setup is broken. 

Note: Notice how the volume grew a little higher, but the bar was lower high. This was the signal to GTFO.

Ticker: SWHC

 

This chart was begging for a retrace.

I got burned because I did not calculate the risk vs. reward on this trade. This was a low risk no reward type of chart. I should have waited for more of a parabolic. This type of setup works better, if the setup was a descending triangle.

Note: I should be waiting for better opportunities.

Please let me know if you have any comments or opinions. I would like to know if you have spotted any mistakes in my logic.