26th: Poor Risk Assessment

Summary

I played some hard stocks to get ahead today, but I gave it all up because of what? I had no reason to play anything after 11am and the setups were terrible. What the fuck am I trying to prove here? My stops aren't even in the right place. Why the fuck am I not letting the chart prove itself to me?

When I am wrong, I will know it. I can't anticipate being wrong because I don't know if I am wrong until I am wrong! I must let the trade pan out.

I have two more things to work on and they are:
1. Setting up the correct risk for each trade. There is no excuse for not doing this because my position sizing has been getting better.
2. Actually let the risk test out before getting out. Usually, the trade either works or I can get out at a better price than the bottom or top.

Ticker: DD

The risk should have been $67. I did not learn my lesson from fucking last time.

Note: All my troubles would have been gone if I had risked towards $67 over/under. I got scared by the stuff and did not give the chart the chance to prove me wrong.

Note: Even stuffs can fails. Everything in the market can fail and I must realize that. There is nothing that is 100% and I must let the chart prove it to me.

Ticker: WHR

I fucking shorted into a fucking dip. WTF was I thinking?

Note: I was not paying attention to the 5 and 15 minute charts. WTF was I thinking shorting this when I should have been relaxing

Note: I really shouldn't be playing anything after 11 or even near 11 because that's when I have been statistically proven to fail. Why the fuck did I play this? I had nothing to prove at this point.

Note: There was no volume!

Ticker: PRGO

THERE IS NO PLAY HERE!

Note: When I am feeling like shit after a bad play. I will shut down my computer.

Note: There was NO PLAY here and even when there is NO PLAY, I must exit out my position PROPERLY by letting it test $100 over/under.

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8th, 10th: Don't Fight Trend

Summary

I have a big problem on my hands and that is not following trend. If a stock is grinding higher, then it will probably want to go higher. I can't make assumptions of it wanting to go lower unless it does it. Today, I fucked up big time because I flipped my position.

Everything was pointing up and I was ready to go long. When the bars were forming, I just had a glimpse of a perfect scenario and then everything switched. I blinded myself by wanting to see something that wasn't there.

I fought the trend and lost. 

Ticker: SPWR (02/08/16)

Played it okay.

Note: Need to be on the lookout for the bigger picture. As you can see, it worked the rest of the day.

Ticker: SCTY

 

The daily looked okay for quick pop and fade, wash and recovery, or grind and recovery.

Note: When trend held, I was looking to long it in the beginning, but it moved very slow.

It dipped and held a higher low compared to pre-market. Then it grinded up and broke out. My initial idea was to long, but then something came over my head at 11:00 which made me think it would be a short. I should have known better than to fight a trend though.

Note: I thought the grind was slowing down and beginning to turn at 10:55 when I was looking for the long. Then I just decided to switch my bias to short. The problem here is was that the longs won the 10:55 bar.

Note: Some psychology here is what would I do if I were in certain points of this trend. In the morning, there was a gap down and the initial pop was a sell off for those who wanted to get out. As soon as it held the higher low, as a new investor, I would not be scared unless it went below $18.20.  There was no lower low at any point so I would have been okay with it grinding. 

Note: DON'T FIGHT THE TREND! 

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28th: Poor Execution

Summary

Step by step I am starting to understand the trades I want to take. However, I must be able to execute efficiently. Today was not one of those days and I felt it. I started to write my strategy out and will tweak as I go. There is much to do.

Ticker: NOW

How I played this.



Note: My risk was definitely too high which affected my emotions during the trade. I need to be willing to risk the amount I want and be okay with it.

Note: This was scalp play which is okay, but I really want to get an idea of the bigger picture to get the big moves.

Note: The high of candle after my entry should have been my risk after the flush because I would have been okay with it.

What I missed right under my nose.

Note: I gotta focus more.



Ticker: NEOS

This isn't even what I charted out originally.

Note: Just horrible charting on my part with no set risk. This is not the way I want to trade.

Better representation of what was going on.

Note: It looks much better and shows me that this is not a trade I should be looking for,

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22nd, 25th: Long Way

Summary

I got a long way to go with learning to trade. There are a few things I need to get straight before it can all click. I need a solid strategy, lots of sleep, and to be prepared. It's sad that I haven't been able to make a watchlist given all this time, but I will correct myself no matter what. There is no excuse for not doing so. Sterling Pro has been awesome so far, but I need to be able to use it flawlessly. I need more practice.

Swings

Ticker: AEM

Looks like a nice swing long since it gapped up today.

 My could have been more patient for a better entry and my stop was way too tight.

Note: If I am going to swing, I better start paying more attention to my stops and such.

Daytrades

Ticker: ZFGN 

The daily looked good for a short. 

 

The moment it got rejected at $9.50s, I was interested. This was VinnyB's idea that I stole and took home.

Note: When a stock just flushes, I need to be patient for volume to kick in fully to get the most out of it. Usually I leave money on the table by getting out too early. I could have easily got 10 more cents out of this trade.

Note: I need to start drawing trendlines and forming my own ideas. 

Ticker: ENOC

Paraboliced in the morning and I was looking for the backside

Note: Although this idea could have worked, it shouldn't be a one I'm looking at. I want to be looking for descending triangles and ascending triangles. Nice and simple.

Note: I added way too soon and did not give it enough time to work.

Ticker: OMED

 

This stock gapped down and I saw it consolidate with a descending triangle pattern. I took it, but it reclaimed.

Note: I did not give enough time to retest and added way too soon. I should have stuck with the trade, but I did not have a clear plan so I failed.

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Tenth: History Lesson

Summary

Based on my previous experience, I have stuck to the notion that anything can happen in the markets. With this, I have forgotten a lesson that history tends to repeat itself. So even though anything could happen, I need to remember that there is a greater chance that something will happen again if it happened before. That's the whole game we are playing; we are betting on setups that have worked in the past. It's the only edge we got. 

Ticker: KMI

 

I was a fool for not looking at the past.

Note: It was VinnyB who alerted me to the history of this chart and I noted that it could have been a good short given the history. However, my long bias got to me after I couldn't resist how good the daily and intraday chart looked.

How the chart looked in the daily. I think I would have preferred a higher gap up to play the breakout.

Note: The daily looked good so I immediately had a long biased for this stock. 

Point of interest #1: This is an area I should be watching intraday to see what happens. 

I fucked up my entry initially because I was stupid. I missed the ascending triangle and tried to get in on the dip. My add was decent, but the chart just didn't work. I should have bailed as soon as it started forming a descending triangle. I say this based on the previous history of the chart.

Note: I could have been more active with this chart and got out earlier. However, since I was long biased, I was hoping for a saucer pattern. I haven't seen a saucer pattern in this market in a long time, so that is how bad my bias got.

Note: I expected the dip under $17.20 after seeing it so many times before. As long as it defended and bounced back, I was okay.

A more macro view of the chart.

Note: The first point of interest, $17.35,  got stuffed which meant it was weak. However, it got passed it later on.

Point of interest #2: Anything lower than this price, the setup is broken. 

Note: Notice how the volume grew a little higher, but the bar was lower high. This was the signal to GTFO.

Ticker: SWHC

 

This chart was begging for a retrace.

I got burned because I did not calculate the risk vs. reward on this trade. This was a low risk no reward type of chart. I should have waited for more of a parabolic. This type of setup works better, if the setup was a descending triangle.

Note: I should be waiting for better opportunities.

Please let me know if you have any comments or opinions. I would like to know if you have spotted any mistakes in my logic.

Fourth: Decent Play

Summary

I played this decently.

Ticker: LIVE

 

I saw the ABCD/ascending triangle setup and went in. Risked towards $2.

Note: I just took the money and ran because I didn't have much confidence to stay in it. Hopefully this small win gives me more confidence in the future.

See something I did wrong today? Let me know by commenting below.

Eighth: No Words

Summary

Nothing really to say today. There was a positive trade and I just have to keep it up.

Ticker: NSPH

Here is the five minute chart to see an overview of the trade for the day.

Here are my trades.

Note: I traded scared and this must stop. If a chart is working in my favor, I should be confident enough to add in. I must be able to think more clearly or I will miss other opportunities. 

Note: Give the chart more time to work out. 

Know what I am doing wrong? Please let me know by commenting below. 

Eighteenth: No Deposits

Summary

I rushed a purchase today when I should have been patient. The reason is probably because I was too excited to be back in the game. I am waiting to re-fund my account so that is why I have been purchasing lower price stocks. 

Suretrader has not allowed me to deposit money into my account because they are reworking their ACH system. 

Ticker: CIDM

So the bar was above the $0.95 support and I bought it early without being patient. An amateur move and something I hope not to make again.

Note: I was too anxious too trade and rushed. Given that this was a lower volume stock and it was not a clear breakout with volume, I should have known that it was weak. 

Ticker: CLRX

This chart was following a upwards trend. It is making higher highs and higher lows, so I thought I would buy in. This time I was a bit more patient and purchased when support came in. 

Note: The stop is low of day and I will be patient for this to go towards $1.00. 

Please let me know if you have any comments or opinions. I would like to know if you have spotted any mistakes in my logic.

Twenty Fourth: Step Back

Summary

A chart that just failed. I also have to be more quick and remind myself that small profit is better than a loss.

Ticker:  LOOK

Target was $2.10 after I recognize a small ascending triangle. It also broke out of the long term downtrend line. After it broke $2, I thought it had strong support. It did not and I should have recognized that as a signal to sell.

Note: The risk was 9 cents and the reward was 17 cents. Almost 9:17 which is 1:2 ratio which is better than yesterday.

Note: When it broke the uptrend line and channeled, I should have immediately sold out as this was a sign of weakness. It also broke my second "imaginary" stop @ $1.99 which should have been my signal. My stubbornness cost me the small win.

Note: The second thing was I sold early @ $1.90 instead of my stop @ $1.84. I did this to protect myself from further losses. In hindsight, I should have left it be because that was low of day and it could have bounced a bit which it did later on. I guess this is in hindsight so perhaps I should think of a better plan for stops.

Prediction: CRNT

My prediction was correct with a failed follow through and a drop today. The volume was halved yesterday and today was a complete tank.

Note: I was right, but I want to get better at predictions. There was no news and it tanked. No continuation.

Please let me know if you have any comments or opinions. I would like to know if you have spotted any mistakes in my logic.

Thirteenth: Unwarranted Detour

Summary

-$0.68 a share

 Today was a horrible day for me, but I kept my cool by not over trading and more importantly, I did not allow the trade to affect my overall day. The original mistake stemmed from me being bored and trading when I didn't have to. When this happened, all my rules seemed to have flown out the window. It goes to show that the market can rip anyone apart regardless of how much experience they have. I cannot let this trade affect me.

There is no point in being angry because that is just a waste of energy and time worrying. The trade already took place and I need to review what I did wrong and continue onto the next trade.

Ticker: REPH

I started in because I was bored and did not allow resistance to properly test. I assumed $14.00 would be top and played the front size of the move for no good reason. When $14.25 looked weak, I added because I thought that was the top. I was wrong. The real top was @ $14.60 which was obvious because it was prior resistance. I was stupid and could not take it anymore when it started making higher highs in consolidation.

Note: I made a stupid move by playing the front size and not allowing the chart to test resistances properly. I rushed the play and also played something I was unfamiliar with. This was stupid.

Ticker: DHT

I did not allow resistance to test properly and break. I failed to notice the failed follow through after the morning washout. I did not sell when there was an obvious red volume flag. I just stopped out. I need to be able to read charts better if I am to survive the market.

Note: I am just happy that I did not over trade and racked up commissions. This day could have been worse.

Please let me know if you have any comments or opinions. I would like to know if you have spotted any mistakes in my logic.

Second: Close, but no cigar

Summary

Took one trade today that I thought it was decent. It just didn't work out. I stopped posting because I took a long break while re-funding my account. I almost decided to quit posting all together because of all my losses, but then realized that that was stupid. I want to get better and this is a way to do it.

Ticker: GBSN

This trade just didn't work out. I noticed an ABCD pattern and  after it was close to resistance, I bought in @ $4.22 to see if it could break it. My stop was $4.11. One thing I might have noticed was the double top it put in with no clear break. I should have bought in when it broke it clearly for the red to green move.

Note: The double top with no clear break should have been a warning for me to be cautious. Other than that, it was just a position that didn't work out. The only available play here was to draw a descending trend lime immediately after the failed breakout and play the breakout from the descending trend line.

Please let me know if you have any comments or opinions. I would like to know if you have spotted any mistakes in my logic.

Too Patient

Ticker: CERE

I should have bought in when it made a higher low in anticipation for a breakout. I was too late today because I thought it was just testing $0.38 as resistance. When it broke out, I did not want to chase so I let it go. 

I thought it was just testing the resistance today. I already missed out on the break of the smaller channel so I did not want to chase.

I tried to be patient for this chart because it looked like it was consolidating before the breakout. I should have just bought in when the risk was low and been patient with a position. When it broke out, I had no chance and did not want to chase. Next time, I will be ready. 

XRA was a good example of buying in and being patient.  

Breakouts or Fakeouts

Breakouts

I wanted to take the time to analyze how intra-day breakout charts should look like compared to how intra-day fakeout charts look like. These seem to be the signs I tend to notice before the big move and what I should look out for in the future so I don't miss out. 

Ticker: DSCO

So I chose this chart because it was clearly in a ascending triangle. Today was the day it broke out, but I did not play it since I was focused elsewhere. I think an ideal breakout chart should look something like this. At the end, I didn't want to chase so I just let it be.

I noticed that the range got a little tighter and an ABCD type pattern forming. When the pattern grew a bit steeper, I should have known that a big move was coming. The volume was solid and I should have looked at this as a positive sign. 

Intraday looked perfect. It broke previous resistance with great volume. I dipped and this is where I should have bouggt. I was where I got alerted too. I was blinded and did not even take it. An ideal breakout is one like this, great volume and good patterns. No problems!

Note: It seems like a good break of the previous resistance plus insane volume indicates a good chart. I could have even seen an ABCD pattern here and purchased. It was great throughout the rest of the day.

Ticker: PPP

So yesterday, this chart broke out completely and I missed the initial move. I just got in today @ $3.54. This chart looks pretty good for a nice pop.

I actually missed the ascending triangle forming for this chart because I did not look at the 15 minutes. Look how similar this breakout looks like to DSCO. It was a clear breakout plus the bars were near the upperend of the pattern.

Note: I don't think it matters that much where the bars were before the breakout, but I think there needs to be either a clear breakout or descent breakout with great volume. Anything else could be just a fake.

The volumes here aren't very clear, but the chart tells a different story. Again, volume is just a tool to aid the charts so the charts is the end factor. If there is a clear breakout, then I would have to play it regardless. Any previous days volume seem to affect the performance of the beginning of the next day. For example, the volume seemed to have done well, but it was a grind upwards because it slammed down the first clear break. This seems like an opportunity to purchase the stock at a better price.

Note: Remember, these signals work best for charts that have taken a beating. Not charts that look too overextended.

Fakeouts

Ticker: ZNGA

In the beginning, it looked like it was ready, but there was no clear breakout. I tried to follow the volume, but got burned because of it.

The volume looked decent, yes, but it did not reflect how the chart was doing. For stocks that have a lot of volume, it is better for the breakout to occur than to count on any volume. However, the volume indicated when I should get out which saved my ass.

Note: These are all similar charts, but the ones that broke out was obvious because it did straight out of the gate. The ones that don't are most likely fakeouts.

Recovery - Update 03/04/2015

After a failed breakout, I immediately took this off my watchlist. However, looking back, I should have noticed that it did hold the channel and that was the safest time to buy.

I need to remember that charts could hold multiple patterns and can operate on multiple time frames. Since these charts are hard to find, I need to be aware that a chart could still breakout after the first failure.

Check this out to see what I mean: WEN

Sidenotes

I don't  know how many times I have to tell myself this, but the chart is always right. Volume is only a tool used to gauge the chart. Volume cannot be depended upon. A clear breakout with good volume is great while a clear breakout with low volume means that it can still grind back up. No breakout with good volume just means that it hit resistance.

Breakouts don't usually last unless they look good on the daily as well. You should sell the day of the breakout or a specified time of when you think you should sell. 

Please let me know if you have any comments or opinions. I would like to know if you have spotted any mistakes in my logic.