Twentieth: Failed Read

Summary

I stupidly sold 50 stocks when I had 60. This was a $25 mistake that I don't want to do again. I need to look over at my position to determine my total position before entering it.

The market continues to surprise me and prove me wrong everyday. A reason for my misfortune is due to some fundamental mistakes that I have been committing. It is today that I realized these mistakes fully and how it affected my judgement on some charts. 

Mistakes

1. Assuming that is chart is done for the day based on daily.

2. Placing incorrect trade specifications.

3. Using only one chart for determining when to enter.

I need to correct these mistakes if I actually want to make profit. If I don't, I will just fail.

  Ticker: PBMD

Although my initial opinion for this chart was long, I quickly shifted views after it broke down during the one minute chart. I should have just kept an open mind for the possibility of this going higher.

Note: I had the right idea in the beginning but quickly dismissed it after what the 1 minute chart was doing. I cannot dismiss anything and must keep an open mind. 

My idea was to long and anticipate a $3 break. The chart was holding higher highs at the time so I purchased some @ $2.81. As you can see, I focused on the one minute chart and stupidly did not consider anything else. After the flush down, I sold out @ $2.70. I quickly switched to a short view for this chart since it has already been up so high. This was my first mistake.

Note: I quickly switched my views to short as soon as my long attempt failed. This chart also did not show any signs of continuation for longs. This was my biggest mistake because it stopped me from looking at the bigger picture. 

This was the bigger picture I should have been looking at. This is what my original plan should have been. If I only looked at all the charts, I would have noticed that the 5 minute view was the chart to work with with this ticker.

Note: If I took 20 seconds to look at the 5 minute view, my whole strategy would have been different. I would have made bank and today would have been a good day. Instead of this, I lost $15 on commission and took a $6 loss on top of that.

Ticker: CLRX

I added in @ $0.77 when it was almost low of day. I will trust this chart since it is still producing higher lows and higher highs. The bar types such as an indeterminate bar does not bother me.

Please let me know if you have any comments or opinions. I would like to know if you have spotted any mistakes in my logic.

The Eighth: Patience Pays

Summary

I took a long break from posting to re-focus. It was what I deeply needed to stay in the game. I realized there was no point in posting every loss. I just want to put my head down and get back to work. I will continue doing so until I am back in the game.

Ticker: GTXI

It formed an ABCD pattern and held a higher low at C. It also broke out of the descending triangle and held trend. I BOT @ $0.76 anticipating for the $0.82 breakout. It took a while, but it finally broke out. My patience seemed to have paid off.

Note: I will continue to monitor this and will add into it if it holds $0.84 as support. I will hold until $1.00. I will also probably up my stop on Monday. 

Ticker: STEM

The idea was for a morning consolidation before another push. I got in early @ $0.64 and waited for the push. It did not happen so I sold out.

It pushed forwards to $0.65, but it couldn't break it the second time. I should have noticed this and sold at a higher price to recover some of my losses. My stop was @ $0.63.

Note: This idea just didn't work. I will sell more quickly next time if it does not break the resistance after the second attempt. I need to remember that I can also buy back in if it works. 

Please let me know if you have any comments or opinions. I would like to know if you have spotted any mistakes in my logic.

Twenty Fourth: Step Back

Summary

A chart that just failed. I also have to be more quick and remind myself that small profit is better than a loss.

Ticker:  LOOK

Target was $2.10 after I recognize a small ascending triangle. It also broke out of the long term downtrend line. After it broke $2, I thought it had strong support. It did not and I should have recognized that as a signal to sell.

Note: The risk was 9 cents and the reward was 17 cents. Almost 9:17 which is 1:2 ratio which is better than yesterday.

Note: When it broke the uptrend line and channeled, I should have immediately sold out as this was a sign of weakness. It also broke my second "imaginary" stop @ $1.99 which should have been my signal. My stubbornness cost me the small win.

Note: The second thing was I sold early @ $1.90 instead of my stop @ $1.84. I did this to protect myself from further losses. In hindsight, I should have left it be because that was low of day and it could have bounced a bit which it did later on. I guess this is in hindsight so perhaps I should think of a better plan for stops.

Prediction: CRNT

My prediction was correct with a failed follow through and a drop today. The volume was halved yesterday and today was a complete tank.

Note: I was right, but I want to get better at predictions. There was no news and it tanked. No continuation.

Please let me know if you have any comments or opinions. I would like to know if you have spotted any mistakes in my logic.

Twenty Second: Curse Continues

Summary  

I was not on time this morning to get out of this position since it flew by my stop. I think I figured out why I am losing big time from these potential breakout stocks. 

The curse continues. 

Ticker: MEIP

My stop was $2.18 and I thought yesterday was a consolidation before another push forward since it held above $2.19. I took a risk and got in @ $2.23 before the end of day push. Unpleasantly, it tanked today and went through my stop. I suppose I could have got out at a better time, but I just didn't like the situation.

Note: I bet that this stock would have continued if there was good news supporting it. This push was based on the chart and once it broke down, there was nothing left to support it. I noticed the stocks that I pick to continue are the stocks that have no news or bad news. 

Note: I need to play stocks that have good news on the day it breaks out so that it would continue. 

Prediction: CRNT

The news was posted on April 14th, but there was a breakout today. There was nothing else.

Prediction: This was only a technical play and no news means it will have no support tomorrow. I predict that this will go red tomorrow with a possibility of a consolidation for another push.

Please let me know if you have any comments or opinions. I would like to know if you have spotted any mistakes in my logic.

Sixth: Fighting Trend

Summary

Another loss because I rushed and did not pay proper attention to the chart movements. It was a decent plan, but I was fighting the BIG picture. This chart went big and consolidated before coming up to the point in the picture. I should have just considered it part of consolidation and went along with the trend. Something that I again, failed to do. 

Ticker: VLTC

Should have followed the trend and thought long when looking at this chart. Before it created a ascending triangle, I thought it made a lower high and was ready to fall. However, it held $4 and kept on chugging along. I should have noticed the ascending and switched positions from short to long. I waited too long to sell out.

Note: It seems like there is a difference between where I thought was top and the actual  top after the run. Before the chart snaps down, the base seems to be more concrete @ $4.40 and each bar is closer together forming lower highs. The volume also indicates that while trying to push forward, it is failing.

Note: Don't fight trend!

Please let me know if you have any comments or opinions. I would like to know if you have spotted any mistakes in my logic.

Nineteenth: Giant Fuck Up

Summary

I got too emotional with my trading today. After my initial loss, I got angry and traded too much. Being tired did not help at all. I realized that I have not been playing the right way and it got to me. I know that if I continue the path I am on, I will fail. So I must steer the ship to the right path. It's the only way to succeed.

I discovered a few things about my trading after talking with VinnyB such as over complicating simple ideas and making stupid judgements. This is something I must fix.

Ticker: FOLD 

I was an idiot and made every mistake in the book with this one. There really is no excuse for this at this point. I just fucked up so bad. I think this was the case because I broke my rule of trading under pressure and not having another energy. I got my emotions get the best of me here and should have stopped after my first big loss from the squeeze.

Note: I made every mistake in the book on this one and ignored all the signs. My emotions got the best of me and I fucked up. This could have been a great trade, but my lack of common sense just fucked me.

Note: If I am going to trade like this, I might as well throw my money in the trash and live in the streets.

Ticker: CORT

I stupidly bought @ $6.00 because I rushed the trade. I got tricked by the volume @ $5.80 and forgot it meant that it could still go higher. I did allow it to test $6.00 at all and was just stupid. After its stunt, it was holding $6.00 so I got out before another run.

Note: I must be more patient and allow the resistance and supports to be tested more thoroughly. Otherwise, I am going in blind without confirmation. I almost got squeezed here because of it. 

Please let me know if you have any comments or opinions. I would like to know if you have spotted any mistakes in my logic.

Too Much Thinking

Missed Opportunity

Ticker: JOB

I was hoping for another squeeze after consolidation.

It went above support with nice volume and it tested support and held. I was thinking of buying with the stop @ low of day.

Note: I was contemplating whether or not this play was worth it compared to the others I had on alert. This was a $1.20 or $1.25 sell and my risk would be under $1 @ $0.99. 

I thought too long and missed the move. I did not want to chase so I let it be.

Note: I hope my for trading becomes automatic in the future so I don't miss these types of plays. I don't think I made a mistake because I know there are better plays out there. I just have to be patient and be on the lookout. I want high returns over time so my TD three day settlement day doesn't get in the way. These plays are out there and I know I can find it.

Please let me know if you have any comments or opinions. I would like to know if you have spotted any mistakes in my logic.

Too Patient

Ticker: CERE

I should have bought in when it made a higher low in anticipation for a breakout. I was too late today because I thought it was just testing $0.38 as resistance. When it broke out, I did not want to chase so I let it go. 

I thought it was just testing the resistance today. I already missed out on the break of the smaller channel so I did not want to chase.

I tried to be patient for this chart because it looked like it was consolidating before the breakout. I should have just bought in when the risk was low and been patient with a position. When it broke out, I had no chance and did not want to chase. Next time, I will be ready. 

XRA was a good example of buying in and being patient.  

Breakouts or Fakeouts

Breakouts

I wanted to take the time to analyze how intra-day breakout charts should look like compared to how intra-day fakeout charts look like. These seem to be the signs I tend to notice before the big move and what I should look out for in the future so I don't miss out. 

Ticker: DSCO

So I chose this chart because it was clearly in a ascending triangle. Today was the day it broke out, but I did not play it since I was focused elsewhere. I think an ideal breakout chart should look something like this. At the end, I didn't want to chase so I just let it be.

I noticed that the range got a little tighter and an ABCD type pattern forming. When the pattern grew a bit steeper, I should have known that a big move was coming. The volume was solid and I should have looked at this as a positive sign. 

Intraday looked perfect. It broke previous resistance with great volume. I dipped and this is where I should have bouggt. I was where I got alerted too. I was blinded and did not even take it. An ideal breakout is one like this, great volume and good patterns. No problems!

Note: It seems like a good break of the previous resistance plus insane volume indicates a good chart. I could have even seen an ABCD pattern here and purchased. It was great throughout the rest of the day.

Ticker: PPP

So yesterday, this chart broke out completely and I missed the initial move. I just got in today @ $3.54. This chart looks pretty good for a nice pop.

I actually missed the ascending triangle forming for this chart because I did not look at the 15 minutes. Look how similar this breakout looks like to DSCO. It was a clear breakout plus the bars were near the upperend of the pattern.

Note: I don't think it matters that much where the bars were before the breakout, but I think there needs to be either a clear breakout or descent breakout with great volume. Anything else could be just a fake.

The volumes here aren't very clear, but the chart tells a different story. Again, volume is just a tool to aid the charts so the charts is the end factor. If there is a clear breakout, then I would have to play it regardless. Any previous days volume seem to affect the performance of the beginning of the next day. For example, the volume seemed to have done well, but it was a grind upwards because it slammed down the first clear break. This seems like an opportunity to purchase the stock at a better price.

Note: Remember, these signals work best for charts that have taken a beating. Not charts that look too overextended.

Fakeouts

Ticker: ZNGA

In the beginning, it looked like it was ready, but there was no clear breakout. I tried to follow the volume, but got burned because of it.

The volume looked decent, yes, but it did not reflect how the chart was doing. For stocks that have a lot of volume, it is better for the breakout to occur than to count on any volume. However, the volume indicated when I should get out which saved my ass.

Note: These are all similar charts, but the ones that broke out was obvious because it did straight out of the gate. The ones that don't are most likely fakeouts.

Recovery - Update 03/04/2015

After a failed breakout, I immediately took this off my watchlist. However, looking back, I should have noticed that it did hold the channel and that was the safest time to buy.

I need to remember that charts could hold multiple patterns and can operate on multiple time frames. Since these charts are hard to find, I need to be aware that a chart could still breakout after the first failure.

Check this out to see what I mean: WEN

Sidenotes

I don't  know how many times I have to tell myself this, but the chart is always right. Volume is only a tool used to gauge the chart. Volume cannot be depended upon. A clear breakout with good volume is great while a clear breakout with low volume means that it can still grind back up. No breakout with good volume just means that it hit resistance.

Breakouts don't usually last unless they look good on the daily as well. You should sell the day of the breakout or a specified time of when you think you should sell. 

Please let me know if you have any comments or opinions. I would like to know if you have spotted any mistakes in my logic.