Do or Die

My Situation 
I traded like shit this month and my CyGroup account reflects it. My account will be frozen once it reaches a -$3800 balance and I have a -$3400 balance now. This means I only have $400 in my account which will be $163.20 next month after the platform/data fees. Next month is my last chance to prove to myself that I have what it takes to be a consistent trader.

It will be the toughest month of my life and will determine my fate as a winner or a loser.

What's next?
I have been trading for the past two years and everything has come to these final moments. My odds of surviving are slim to none given my circumstances. However, I am not going to quit. I will review everything I learned and grind my ass off next month. I will do whatever it takes to become consistent.

I'll see you guys on the other side. 

Watchlist for 4th

Main Watch
SRPT - Looking to short on weakness in the morning.

TSRA - If it opens weak, I will short because I think there will be some profit taking like the other times.

Side Watch
AAPL - I think a consolidation like today and a continuation from yesterday is appropriate.

2nd: Terrible Trading

Summary

I had a head start again in the morning and turned it into shit. I think my plans for the morning has become a bit better while I don't have any plans for the afternoon. If I want to play the afternoons, I must start scanning for stocks that I think will have a run in the afternoon. Stocks like SRPT where the daily chart didn't look half bad with a solid thesis behind it.

A trade with a thesis is something VinnyB always stresses and I agree. I think I am not doing well in the afternoon is because I never made any plans for those trades. They are ALL random! 

What will I do?

After today's loss, I have developed an aggressive money management strategy that is based on my current account size. It will help push the pace of my trading progress and help me finally define my risks/rewards where before I had nothing.

I will only play stocks I have a plan on. No more afternoon plays with no solid plans. I know I said it before, but now I must mean it. I will fail if I continue what I am doing and my account will reflect it. I have been reviewing my watchlist and some have been working. I will continue to post these and improve it as time goes on. 

I have discovered some of my ways to waste time and will eliminate them from my life. Time is a precious thing and I must use every second productively.

Ticker: DRYS

I shorted cause I just thought it was an unwarranted pop. There was no plan here.

Note: There was no solid plan here. It's a type of chart I should stay away from. It took back the money I made from it.

Note: There are times I know I am wrong and the chart gives me an opportunity to exit. I must take those opportunities.

Ticker: BRCD

I had no plan here and entered poorly. I got out because I realized that.

Note: SSR was on so I should have been patient when I missed my opportunity in the first minute. If I miss a trade, then I miss a trade. I must not chase it!

Note: I must realize that a bad entry is no go. If I miss a trade, then I simply miss a trade!

Ticker: ULTR

I saw an ABCD pattern here and decided to give it a shot. This was NOT a good play because the 15 minute chart did not support it. The pattern was broken and I still didn't get out.

Note: I noticed that ABCDs work when Cs last longer. This is because it has a longer time to consolidate. The plays I play are usually good shorts.

Note: I was given a gift by the chart to get exit and I didn't take it like an idiot. I was there hoping and that got me killed. I must realize when my idea doesn't work to GET OUT!

I got killed for playing the lull.

Note: I was looking for a short, but got killed. It wasted 3 hours of my life and had no volume. I shouldn't play this bullshit.

Note: My original plan was to see $0.55s peak, but I just rushed into the trade. I must WAIT for the trade to come to me!

Notice a mistake? Let me know below!

29th: Lucky Win

Summary

I was lucky today that it was a red day for the SPY. Otherwise, I would have fucked up badly.

Ticker: GILD

The idea was that it was going to head lower. This was on my watchlist.

GILD - I'll short on weakness in the morning for a quick washout. Otherwise, I will wait for a pattern to form afterwards to either go long if a trend forms or short.

I didn't follow my plan at all because I did not take my profits for a quick washout. I did not cover to break even when it went against me. I didn't do anything like an idiot.

Note: I should take account on what the pre-market did to see how the morning would react. The drop was already big, so I guess I could have guessed for some kind of bounce.

Note: I was way too slow to take profits and was in too much size due to the no odd lot restriction. I was already in a losing situation when I decided to play this stock. The best I could have done would be instantly cover if it didn't work and cover quickly if it did work. I did neither and lost big because my plan was NOT defined.

Note: The morning losses affected my play significantly on the trades after. My mind was no longer with me and I just took what I could instead of looking at the big picture.

Note: I should wait for the trade to come to me and if it doesn't, then it doesn't.

Ticker: SRCL

My prior losses definitely affected my play here.

Note: I should be objective and should not let emotions affect me after a significant loss. I must have a solid game plan before entering trades.

Note: I covered way too early in my first trade and should have added in given the trend it was in. My second exit was decent, but I should have anticipated for the $95 break really before covering.

Note: I was just happy I didn't give up trading for the day after the first trade. I just kept going saying that I can still make up. 

 

Got something to say? Say it below!

26th: Poor Risk Assessment

Summary

I played some hard stocks to get ahead today, but I gave it all up because of what? I had no reason to play anything after 11am and the setups were terrible. What the fuck am I trying to prove here? My stops aren't even in the right place. Why the fuck am I not letting the chart prove itself to me?

When I am wrong, I will know it. I can't anticipate being wrong because I don't know if I am wrong until I am wrong! I must let the trade pan out.

I have two more things to work on and they are:
1. Setting up the correct risk for each trade. There is no excuse for not doing this because my position sizing has been getting better.
2. Actually let the risk test out before getting out. Usually, the trade either works or I can get out at a better price than the bottom or top.

Ticker: DD

The risk should have been $67. I did not learn my lesson from fucking last time.

Note: All my troubles would have been gone if I had risked towards $67 over/under. I got scared by the stuff and did not give the chart the chance to prove me wrong.

Note: Even stuffs can fails. Everything in the market can fail and I must realize that. There is nothing that is 100% and I must let the chart prove it to me.

Ticker: WHR

I fucking shorted into a fucking dip. WTF was I thinking?

Note: I was not paying attention to the 5 and 15 minute charts. WTF was I thinking shorting this when I should have been relaxing

Note: I really shouldn't be playing anything after 11 or even near 11 because that's when I have been statistically proven to fail. Why the fuck did I play this? I had nothing to prove at this point.

Note: There was no volume!

Ticker: PRGO

THERE IS NO PLAY HERE!

Note: When I am feeling like shit after a bad play. I will shut down my computer.

Note: There was NO PLAY here and even when there is NO PLAY, I must exit out my position PROPERLY by letting it test $100 over/under.

Got something to say? Say it below!

Watchlist for 26th

I must continue to be consistent in order to get better at trading.

Notes
I didn't expect AMD to fall like that today, but given the charts history, it is something I should have anticipated. The chart gave a good setup for a short and I wasn't prepared for it.

EBIO was a clear miss because I disregarded it since it was on my side watch. I must review all my watch list charts in the morning or else I wasted my time.

Main Watch
VKTX - I am still looking for either a gap towards $2.20s or parabolic towards there. Same plan as yesterday. Consolidation with volume pop and long or gap and short.

MCUR - Same plan with VXTX, but will be looking for that consolidation or fade/reclaim in the morning if it doesn't gap.

PRGO - I will be looking for a STX style bounce in the morning and more fades.

XRX - Same thing as PRGO. I will be looking for more fades after a bounce in the morning.

LGCY - Looking to short into any stuffs in the morning and risk towards $3.

Side Watch
NEOT - I might short if it looks weak. 

25th: Stop Too Tight

Summary

I missed out on a huge move, because I planned my risk like an idiot.

Ticker: PRGO

Looking to short the bounce and I got in a bit early. I had good sizing, but I had the wrong risk. I risked high of day instead of risking off whole and dollar marks.

Note: I should risk off of whole and half dollar marks for higher priced stocks.

Note: I should be watching higher time frame charts for higher priced stocks. 

Notice a mistake? Let me know below

Watchlist for 25th

This is my first published watchlist in a while. I will only focus on well thought out ideas from now on.

Main Watches
AMD - Looking for continued breakout.

VKTX - The daily looks okay, but really looking for some volume after consolidation to play long. If it gaps and already goes, I'll be looking to short around $2.25s+.

NGL - Looking for a pop and will short risking high of day.

Side Watches
EBIO - Not sure yet on what to do.

Playing Not To Lose

Nothing has changed. I have not learned from my own lessons and every trade I've been taking has been reinforcing my bad habits. I can't blame anyone but myself. My head is not in the right place because I have been playing not to lose.

My cycle has become losing confidence when I trade poorly, not trading when I lose confidence, and trading scared when I trade. This is the cycle to failure and I need to snap out of it. I must assume that all the money I put in the market is lost and trade with no pressure. Even if a trade doesn't work, it doesn't matter because there will always be a next trade. I just have to make sure my plan minimizes risk and trade correctly.

I have noticed that my two biggest problems right now have been my poor entries and sizing. These are the biggest culprits of how I am losing the majority of my money. These are the only two problems I will fix until they are eliminated. Once they are, then I will move on to my other problems.

I have been talking a lot of bullshit lately and haven't been taking action. Now I will take action.

14th, 15th: Huge Miss

Summary

Something is definitely wrong with my psyche. I sized in correctly and still covered prematurely. There are two problems here, and those are my rules and execution. I am still developing a system for my trading and figuring out the best entry/exit strategies. Based on what I've seen, every day is different so some strategies work better than others. It is up to me to figure out the best course of action per trade. 

The type of play today was one where I could have held and added in on any pops as long as it didn't reclaim a level of support. I failed to adapt to that and missed heavily.

Ticker: STX

I got in early and was risking high of days. These are setups that I know that usually just fades all day and yet I cover early.

Note: The area I covered should have been the area I added to my position. There was no reason to cover here based on the the type of play and the action.

Note: For these types of charts, I should add to my positions.

 

Ticker: INFY

I bought the breakout instead of the dip on this stock and that was absolutely the wrong move. There was no momentum to buy the breakout.

Note: If a stock has no volume, then it is safer to buy the dips. The only time I should buy breakouts if there is a stock going parabolic.

Bonus Missed Play: WDC

I missed an entry on this chart as well which should have been a simple start with a risk towards $42.40s.

Note: I should be focused and be playing these charts. I must be prepared in the morning.

Notice a mistake? Let me know below!

11th: Let it Test!

Summary

I did not let the resistance test out as it should.

 Ticker: UEPS

I played this chart after it popped. I got scared too quickly because I played too much size.

Note: Watch size.

Notice a mistake? Let me know below!

4th, 6th: My Thoughts on Market Conditions

I have problems with consistency because these reports should be done daily. I must take a look at my schedule and my habits to solve this.

For April 4th

I’m surprised. SPY is bullish and wants to go test $213s again. Before it does that, I think it consolidates a bit more before it does that. So prepare for choppy markets.

Oil has definitely slipped. I guess the run was just a squeeze before going lower. I want it to test and peak $38.50s before declaring it bearish. It can definitely drop like a rock so find some overextended oil stocks and short short short!

Gold is consolidating. I may be interested in shorting it if it peaks $1185s. Maybe it consolidates a bit and gives us some sideways action before making its move higher or lower.

For April 6th

Market is definitely still choppy and looking to go higher since it based $204s. I shouldn’t be playing any stocks with no volume or clear trend.

Oil has bounced and is heading towards resistance at $38.50s. I still want it to peak there before making any moves.

Gold is choppy and consolidating. I have a feeling it wants to go lower since the market wants to go higher. We shall see what happens.

4th: Fuck Emotions

Summary

I am disappointed on how I traded today. I broke my rules and it keeps being the same ones over and over again. My answer to this is to write down these said rules down and repeat them to myself every morning. 

I also need to tell myself to stay calm in the morning and focus on one or two stocks instead of ten. 

Ticker: BABY

I had issues with my sizing and my entry here. There was no play here because the of day and the volume just wasn't there.

Note: I should not be playing stocks at a bad time and with no volume unless there is a clear trend. This stock just screams choppy action!

Ticker: GNCA

I wanted to scalp, but I played too much size and got too emotional. I must be able to let stocks test resistance or else will always top ticked or bottom ticked out of a position.

Note: I should not add into my position unless I am correct. Adding into a position before I am right just adds more emotions into the picture, and I don't need that.

Note: I am already playing small share sizing; but in order for me to play more, I must limit my adds. 

Note: I should be able to let the stock test an area before making my decision to get out.

Ticker: ZFGN

I started in this position because I thought it was peaking. around this area. I added too early and my emotions got to me when I thought it was holding higher lows.

Note: Again, I should not be adding into my position unless I am right! 

Note: I must let resistance test and peak out or else I will be stopped out.  

Notice a mistake? Let me know below! 

1st: My Thoughts on Market Conditions

For March 28th

The SPY looks like it wants to go lower, but I think it’ll consolidate a little before making a decision. If it bounces, it’ll want to retest $205s. 

Oil looks weak, but it did bounce off of the support at $38.30s. It’ll probably consolidate a bit before heading back down.

Gold lower and I still think it’ll go lower. It’s looking for $1200 before it makes its next move. 

For April 1st

The SPY bounced at 201 and broke out. Now in $205 and positive territory. One more retest at $204s and it could be a green light from here. 

Oil is heading down and probably wants to go lower.

Gold bounced off of $1200 and made a lower high. I want it to retest $1200 and break it towards the downside. If not, then it may break out again and retest $1260s.

22nd-24th: My Thoughts on Market Conditions

I've been pretty lazy with my thoughts on this and still haven't started on a single watch list. I will do so because that's my job. If I want to get paid, I must put in the work. I must stop being lazy.

For March 22rd

SPY is holding up and is looking it wants to get higher.Let’s see how it does between $205 and $213.

Gold is still consolidating, but if it breaks down from the uptrend, I should be looking for shorting opportunities. If it continues, I want it to retest $1266 and head higher.

Oil gapped up and wants to go higher. It’s on its way to $43.

For March 23rd

SPY seems to be consolidating, but still wants to go higher. I expect it to head towards and test $205-$213.

Gold tried to hold up, but keeps failing. If it breaks out of trend, I should be looking for overextended gold charts and start shorting. If it falls, key level is $1200 area.

Oil is consolidating, but I have a feeling it’s on its way to $43.

For March 24th

The SPY seems like it peaked out and wants to go lower now. Is the end nigh?

Gold broke trend, look to sell!

Oil has failed! Time to retest support at $38.30s.

24th: Follow Trend

Summary

I did not have a good day and it's because I did not follow my rules yet again.

My main problems

1. I am not following trend.  

2. When SSR is on, I forget to short the pops.

3. I do not accept my risk before I play. I do not let it test my risk over/under.

4. I never add to my positions at the right time.

5. I am sick too often.

Ticker: PTLA

This gapped down and I started off fine until the add. I did not stick to the plan to add if it peaks and I am definitely winning. My second attempt to short was decent, but I should have been okay with it to test $22. I wasn't okay with it so I got out. My short attempts later were absolutely stupid. $21 was the risk and I just got scared out because it was holding higher lows. It didn't even test $21. My last long attempt was just me trying to get fancy and I shouldn't be doing that shit at this stage of the game.

Note: I noticed that morning shorts are better when the pre-market patterns aren't developed fully. This one was developed fully so the panic didn't continue the wash. In the other chart, it worked better. 

Note: I should be following the trend and stick to the basics. I should not try to get fancy and if I do, I should be willing to pay more for the chart to confirm my theory is correct.

Note: I should be okay with the risk and should let the chart test over/under that risk before I make any judgement. The amount of times that I have gotten scared out because I did not is sad. 

Note: I must remember to short the POPs and if I miss it, then I miss it. 

Notice a mistake? Let me know below!

22nd: Abide the Rules

Summary

I must keep my head down and keep pushing forward. Doing something well today does not mean anything tomorrow. I must abide to my rules and play the setups I know. I mustn't force trades when I am up and mustn't be trading if I'm not well. The reasons why I forced the trade is because of greed and the desire to make more. It wasn't because the setups were good. I need to realize that the money will come once I trade well. Otherwise, I will never trade well.

I have come to question my health recently because of my lack of energy and increase of illnesses. I really hate being sick because it prevents me accomplishing anything. I need to take care of my body if I am to be successful at this profession.

These are all things I know and today serves as a reminder of why they are important. I rather ingrain them in my head today than tomorrow.

Ticker: MFRM

It gapped down and gave me an opportunity to short. I did not take advantage and shorted on weakness instead of strength. I got bear bad.

Note: When SSR is on, I must remember to short on pops or else I could get run over. If I miss the trade, then I miss the trade.

Notes: What's worse is how I did not let it test $38.30s thoroughly. This is a big problem of mine because I sometimes just assume that a stock is finished if it even touches my risk area. I must let it touch it and wait to see what it does afterwards before I make my decision.

Ticker: LEU

I forced this trade because I didn't want to miss out and wanted to make more money. I didn't trade this because the setup was good. The only play was in the morning and on pops along the way. The moment it dropped and held, I should have waited until it peaked $3.00. Instead, I anticipated received a poor entry and paid the price.

Note: I was up for the day and should have called it a day because I wasn't feeling well. Instead, I fell for the trap and got fucked. This was an obvious bear trap because of the way it consolidated and never broke $3. This thing was also low of days to make it worse.

Note: There was no play here except the long, but that is just 50/50. 

Ticker: SRPT

I was frustrated and wanted something to work, so I foolishly played this chart. I did not follow that the uptrend was clearly broken and fought it anyways. This was just stupid.

Note: Just stupid stupid stupid. I had no edge here because the uptrend was no longer valid. All I had was a lot of anxious longs wanting to sell to me.

Bonus Ticker: TSLA

Cygroup alerted this at a pretty good time. I just failed to play it.

Note: There is no excuse not to play this. I must be quick to realize the play and play it.

Notice a mistake? Let me know below!

14th-15th: My Thoughts on Market Conditions

I've been slipping recently with my updates and I think it's because there is so many things that happened last week. I realized that my stress from not posting will increase if I don't start somewhere, so I am going to post what I have and will continue posting until I get you guys up to speed.

I did hit my stride last week and I want it to continue. The only way to do so is to review my trades and get better.

For March 14th

Market came back with a bang on the 13th and it broke out of the $201 range. Now it will go on to $205 and test that level. Perhaps, that is when it will stall and peak. If that’s the case, prepare for the bear market to begin.

Didn’t expect the big pull back, but was probably from the market doing so well. Still in the uptrend and I expect it to continue to consolidate or break down. If it breaks down, I expect it to fade and test $1190s.

Oil is consolidating and really looks like it wants to test $40s. However, it might need more consolidating before it does that. Who knows, maybe it peaks out here and starts to fade. I still think a breakout is possible despite the fundamentals.

For March 15th

SPY channeled up for the day and made a new high. I’ll count this as a consolidation and it to push higher tomorrow. I see a positive week this week and positive the last stand for longs before the winter.

Gold broke down today and it’s going to want to test $1190s. I am expecting it to retrace a bit before moving lower.

Oil hit resistance at $39s. Here rejection there and I expect either a pullback or more consolidation. Looking at the weekly chart, it seems that this chart can flag before going higher.

Missed Plays

Summary

I definitely missed out on a few a plays today and I need to figure out why I am doing that. I had everything set and my sleep was better, but I still managed to miss. My only theory is that I am still not prepared enough in the morning and have been spending my time researching rather than preparing for the open. An example is 10 minutes until the open, I am still going through gap play lists. 

I should be using that time to make up a plan for the stocks I already have on watch. If I continue not being ready, I'm just not going to make any good trades.

Missed Play 1: VRX

Definitely a good looking daily chart.

 Note: I definitely had this on watch and I should have been preparing for this open.

The chart just went straight down with no pop. I did not know where to risk and the time it took me to finally figure it out, the risk was too much. However, I would have made money anyways.

Note: I should be risking whole and half dollar marks if there is no clear resistance. Even the high of day would be acceptable here which is basically $24. I had to market right in.

Note: My morning hesitations have caused me to miss many of these plays. It is because I am not ready for the open. 10 minutes until the open and I am still looking through charts. I should be on my trading platform ready to pounce on every opportunity given to me.

Missed Play 2: ZYNE

A trash sympathy chart and I blew it.

Note: I had this on watch because I was curious what it would do. However, it is kind of obvious since this was chart just came up because of GWPH. Looking for a short would have been the right choice given the market conditions today.

 

 

 Another perfect opportunity that I missed.

A

Note: Wow, a nice rejection and that was it. It even gapped down for me. I can't believe I didn't even bother to focus on this chart.

Notice a mistake? Let me know below!

7th-11th: My Thoughts on Market Conditions

Here were my thoughts on the market conditions last week. I don't think anyone would be interested in them now, but I did say I would post them. The reason I didn't post them sooner was because I wanted to include pictures, but that was way too much work. I didn't do any watch lists, but it's about time I get started with them.

For March 7th 2016

I really want to be looking at the SPY, OIL, and GOLD because they seem to be very active right now. I need to form an opinion about them and then think of a strategy to find the best trades. The best trades will lead to the most profits.

The SPY has definitely some resistance at $200 and I will be expecting a pullback tomorrow. If buying pressure continues, I expect the SPY to head towards $205 to test the waters there. If it pulls back, then I will watch it test the $195 levels. I will be expecting a choppy day for the markets tomorrow unless the market heads higher.

Gold future  continues on making big moves and it broke out of its flag on March 4th with heavy selling. I expect a short term consolidation before going higher and won’t be surprised if it wants to test $1300s. I should be thinking of longing gold at this point.  The problem here is if the market wants to continue going higher, then gold might take a drop.

Oil futures have just broken its downtrend today and may find itself heading towards $43.50s levels. It wants to go there and I will want to see how it reacts there. Oil stocks should be on an uptrend as of now.

SDRL - I know this squeezed many people out because they were covering since the owner was investing more money into the company. I will be looking for a long and my target will be towards $8. I’ll look for a uptrend to form before doing so or just a straight pop. If the name fails, I must look for it to peak out at $5.80s. $5.80s is definitely the key level here.

Target: $8+

Support: $5.80s

For March 8th 2016

Today was a big day for oil. I did not trade well because I did not respect my stops. I cared too much about money than the trade. I did not look at all the charts I had for the day so I missed a few trades as well.

So the SPY fended off the sellers and went to test yesterday's highs at 201. It is still in a range between 199 and 201 so I expect it to chop around until it makes a move. Most likely it breaks out tomorrow at this point and goes to test $205. I should be looking to long some big caps stocks. Looking at the big caps, it seems like a lot of them just sold off. Very strange.

Gold futures consolidated as I thought and has the potential to push higher. I expect the push and it to test $1300s.

Oil futures broke out of the downtrend and I should have played some oil today. Any oil name would have been good because it seems to be heavily shorted. I just had to find the right setups. I expect oil to continue its breakout tomorrow and head towards $40s. A pullback may be coming so I must look for the most exaggerated oil stocks and look for shorts.

For March 10th

The SPY sold off yesterday after it couldn’t break $201. It was a great day for shorting any setups that were overextended. It followed the oil move directly. Looking at the chart more closely, I should have expected a pullback based on the bars and volume. Tomorrow I believe the trend continues and tries to break $201. If it doesn’t, it either chops around at this range or it fails and we will be looking at a bear market.

Gold tried to push and breakout, but it failed on the 8th. The uptrend isn’t over yet, but it looks like it may fade off to test $1200 levels. If it holds, expect a breakout to $1300.

Oil touched recent resistance and faded. I should have been focused on closer resistance than later resistance lines. Oil came back strong today and I expect a breakout for tomorrow to test the $40s mark.

For March 11th

Market is confused on where it wants to go. It’s still chopping, but I have a feeling it will want to fade in the upcoming days. Market will be choppy tomorrow between $199 and $201 and will be fading if it peaks $199s.

Gold still wants to breakout above $1280 because the market is acting pretty weak. Expect a breakout to $1300. I should looking for gold stocks that want to go higher.

Oil is peaking at $38.50s despite the high oil fact. If it goes above that, it’ll test $40s. If not, then I expect a fade due to the fundamentals being weak. Very strange it is holding up this long.