Do or Die

My Situation 
I traded like shit this month and my CyGroup account reflects it. My account will be frozen once it reaches a -$3800 balance and I have a -$3400 balance now. This means I only have $400 in my account which will be $163.20 next month after the platform/data fees. Next month is my last chance to prove to myself that I have what it takes to be a consistent trader.

It will be the toughest month of my life and will determine my fate as a winner or a loser.

What's next?
I have been trading for the past two years and everything has come to these final moments. My odds of surviving are slim to none given my circumstances. However, I am not going to quit. I will review everything I learned and grind my ass off next month. I will do whatever it takes to become consistent.

I'll see you guys on the other side. 

8th: Not Respecting Stops

Summary

I did not respect my risk and the trade took me out of the game today. This is the reason why stops are so important and why I must just get out when my risk area is hit. 

Lessons 

1. I must respect my risk levels and know when I am wrong.

2. I must take what I can get and not be greedy.

3. I must play the game towards my strengths.

Ticker: EW

The daily.

I didn't get out when I was ahead and I just kept trying to get out at the bid when this thing was jumping up.

Note: I should have realized that it was going up at $103.60s. I got greedy and paid for it.

Note: There was a big spread and no sellers. I thought I would get out when it retraces, but it just went straight up. I had no chance.

Note: Next time I have trouble getting out of a situation, I am going to just take the loss and take the ask. 

I tried again and got killed.

Note: I should stick to my strengths and not short weakness.

Note: I should review when to get out of positions. Especially if they are as clear as this one. 

Notice a mistake? Let me know below! 

27th: Breaking Rules

 Summary

Whenever I broke my rules and lost big from a trade, I would assume I couldn't trade the chart anymore because of its high price or volatility. After losing big today, I realized that there were still plenty of opportunities left and I just had to wait for the correct setup that didn't break my rules. The range problem usually disappears once the volume dies out and it is the low risk high reward setups that usually take care of the high price. Trading with 100 shares seems much more doable with the right setups.

What rules that I break?
1. I have an unofficial rule that prohibits me from trading when I am not feeling well or tired. This is something I thought of that I probably will work on today formally because fatigue definitely affects trading in a negative way. I usually trade through fatigue because I like to trade, but I think it definitely played a part of my downfall. If I had a proper rule in place, I would have been better off.

2. I did not manage my risk correctly and was simply not thinking in the morning. The damn chart was over $90s and I didn't even bother to calculate my risk. I went straight in like a fish and got slaughtered. I just didn't bother with risk management in the morning because I was lazy. This laziness cost me $2.00 a share.

How do I plan to fix it?
This is a huge hole in my trading that must be fixed. I was totally unprepared in the morning, so I will make a list of rules I will read in the morning everyday so I don't forget.

Ticker: GWPH

This was the daily chart.

Note: The news was meh at best. I knew the move was overdone because there was really nothing else for traders to do today.

My poor plays.

Note: I should have stopped trading it after my initial fuck up. However, the urge to get back from this chart was strong. This was my biggest mistake, I should have left it alone until the chart was in my favor. 

Note: I realize my mistake and wait for the best setups. At this time, the volatility was high so I should have just waited for it to die down a little more for a good setup.

Missed opportunity.

Note: Instead of taking this off my watch. I should have kept it on and waited for a good setup like this. Since I took it off because of my stupid beliefs, I missed this golden opportunity to actually make good money. 

Notice a mistake? Let me know below! 

16th-19th: Poor Exits

Summary

My confidence has been shattered and I will not be making any money until I get it back. My entries have improved, but my exits have turned into shit.  I have not been letting my trades test out my ideas. I must be patient once I enter the trade and allow it to work!

What must I do?

1. I must work on being patient with the trade and realize when a good exit actually is. I used to be better at my exits, but now it seems I get scared out by any type of movement. 

Ticker: FRAN

 Terrible.

Note: I was only risking 30 cents. There was no reason to cover this early. Everything was in my head because I was thinking how not to lose.

Ticker: ANDE

Gapped up and missed the squeeze. Missed the pullback as well. 

  

My entry wasn't  the best, but I was just risking 42 cents worse case.

Note: There was no reason to cover.

Ticker: SONC

There was a push and I got out because I panicked.

Note: There was a better exit and I panicked before I was able to get out at a better price. This was stupid. I should be calm when I am wrong and wait for the best exit.

Notice a mistake? Let me know below! 

11th: Wrong Risk Levels

Summary

I am not giving the stocks enough room to breathe. This is due to poor entry and poor risk assessment. I am also not taking advantage of my long opportunities. I must realize that I can make money going both ways.

What will I do?
1. I will take more long trades when they present themselves to me. I must be absolutely comfortable before getting to the trade. Any slight stress can cause me to play it wrong.

2. I really must assess the risk more carefully. I developed a system to do that so I can be more accurate with my risk assessment. Once I assess the risk more successfully, I must take the trade by taking fantastic entries. I mustn't be scared that the price is close to my risk because that is the least riskiest.

3. I will once again try writing out my ideas and will slap myself 5 times if it breaks my rules.

Ticker: M

My plan should have been different and I should have risked towards $34.50s. That would have prevented a poor entry and early shakeout. I should not be adding until I am actually right and in the money. I suppose in this situation it was okay.

Note: I gave this trade no room to breathe and paid the price. I added in when I wasn't comfortable so that also led to my demise. 

Note: This trade would have worked out if my risk assessment was done properly. I would have had a better entry and would not have been scared out. When I short in the morning, I should short with less shares based towards my max risk. 

Ticker: ZIOP

The plan was to risk $9.50s over/under. It should have been fucking $9.

Note: Thus was shit planning on my part because parabolic moves usually push higher.

How I played it.

Note: Terrible! I didn't even let it test $9.50s over/under. I just got scared out. This was a terrible play. If I risked towards $9, it would have been no problem because my entry would have been better. 

Notice a mistake? Let me know below! 

Watchlist for 9th

Main Watch
SRPT - Looking for a consolidation in the morning and continuation long from yesterday.

HLF - Looking to short into any pops in the morning risking towards $66.

CVEO - I will short any pops in the morning risking towards $2.

EVHC - I will short any pops in the morning risking towards $24.

5th: Stick to the Plan!

Summary

I did not stick to my plan today. I ventured off and got my head chopped off. I must remember to always stick to my plan, always be patient with my entries, and always get out when I am wrong! I am close to figuring it out, but I am preventing myself to become successful. 

It's like every time I come close, my mind just shuts me down and transports me into a disarrayed state. I must figure out a way to re-focus my mind when this happens. 

My plan -- The few ways to reset?
Going to the gym is my way of bringing my mind back to a peaceful state. This may be the best method for me because it's been tried and proven.

Getting away from the computer is definitely a proven method to bring my mind back to focus. However, as my mind wanders, I don't think I can come back.

Worst case is maybe watching a movie or playing a game. However, these are time wasters if not done properly. 

Ticker: RYAM

I changed my plan as soon as I got in. My share sizing was based on a different plan. I should have got out as soon as I was wrong. Every second I wait is money drained from my account. 

Note: I must stick to my original plan. It's okay to get out if I am wrong because I can always get back in. My goal should always be to manage risk.

Note: I had a chance to get out earlier so I should have. I must take every opportunity the market gives me.

Ticker: VNET

I thought the stock will find some support at $19.

I was late too the party and played this with no setup.

Note: I should be patient and wait for the setup to come to me. I rushed and got a poor entry. If I feel the need to rush, I should take a step back and not take the trade. 

Ticker:  MUR

Random stock.

Note: I must stop playing these random stocks with NO setup or plan.

Notice a mistake? Let me know below!

Watchlist for 5th

Main Watch
WFM - Looking to buy out of the open and risking towards $28.65s over/under. Any dips afterwards if it trends upwards.

RYAM - Will be looking for a weak open and risk towards. If it pops, I will see if it peaks around $13.60s and risk $13.75s.


Side Watch
TSRA - If it opens weak, I will short because I think there will be some profit taking like the other times.

TPUB - Offer by Gannett was rejected, I am interested to seeing how the stock will react to that. 

Watchlist for 4th

Main Watch
SRPT - Looking to short on weakness in the morning.

TSRA - If it opens weak, I will short because I think there will be some profit taking like the other times.

Side Watch
AAPL - I think a consolidation like today and a continuation from yesterday is appropriate.

2nd: Terrible Trading

Summary

I had a head start again in the morning and turned it into shit. I think my plans for the morning has become a bit better while I don't have any plans for the afternoon. If I want to play the afternoons, I must start scanning for stocks that I think will have a run in the afternoon. Stocks like SRPT where the daily chart didn't look half bad with a solid thesis behind it.

A trade with a thesis is something VinnyB always stresses and I agree. I think I am not doing well in the afternoon is because I never made any plans for those trades. They are ALL random! 

What will I do?

After today's loss, I have developed an aggressive money management strategy that is based on my current account size. It will help push the pace of my trading progress and help me finally define my risks/rewards where before I had nothing.

I will only play stocks I have a plan on. No more afternoon plays with no solid plans. I know I said it before, but now I must mean it. I will fail if I continue what I am doing and my account will reflect it. I have been reviewing my watchlist and some have been working. I will continue to post these and improve it as time goes on. 

I have discovered some of my ways to waste time and will eliminate them from my life. Time is a precious thing and I must use every second productively.

Ticker: DRYS

I shorted cause I just thought it was an unwarranted pop. There was no plan here.

Note: There was no solid plan here. It's a type of chart I should stay away from. It took back the money I made from it.

Note: There are times I know I am wrong and the chart gives me an opportunity to exit. I must take those opportunities.

Ticker: BRCD

I had no plan here and entered poorly. I got out because I realized that.

Note: SSR was on so I should have been patient when I missed my opportunity in the first minute. If I miss a trade, then I miss a trade. I must not chase it!

Note: I must realize that a bad entry is no go. If I miss a trade, then I simply miss a trade!

Ticker: ULTR

I saw an ABCD pattern here and decided to give it a shot. This was NOT a good play because the 15 minute chart did not support it. The pattern was broken and I still didn't get out.

Note: I noticed that ABCDs work when Cs last longer. This is because it has a longer time to consolidate. The plays I play are usually good shorts.

Note: I was given a gift by the chart to get exit and I didn't take it like an idiot. I was there hoping and that got me killed. I must realize when my idea doesn't work to GET OUT!

I got killed for playing the lull.

Note: I was looking for a short, but got killed. It wasted 3 hours of my life and had no volume. I shouldn't play this bullshit.

Note: My original plan was to see $0.55s peak, but I just rushed into the trade. I must WAIT for the trade to come to me!

Notice a mistake? Let me know below!

29th: Lucky Win

Summary

I was lucky today that it was a red day for the SPY. Otherwise, I would have fucked up badly.

Ticker: GILD

The idea was that it was going to head lower. This was on my watchlist.

GILD - I'll short on weakness in the morning for a quick washout. Otherwise, I will wait for a pattern to form afterwards to either go long if a trend forms or short.

I didn't follow my plan at all because I did not take my profits for a quick washout. I did not cover to break even when it went against me. I didn't do anything like an idiot.

Note: I should take account on what the pre-market did to see how the morning would react. The drop was already big, so I guess I could have guessed for some kind of bounce.

Note: I was way too slow to take profits and was in too much size due to the no odd lot restriction. I was already in a losing situation when I decided to play this stock. The best I could have done would be instantly cover if it didn't work and cover quickly if it did work. I did neither and lost big because my plan was NOT defined.

Note: The morning losses affected my play significantly on the trades after. My mind was no longer with me and I just took what I could instead of looking at the big picture.

Note: I should wait for the trade to come to me and if it doesn't, then it doesn't.

Ticker: SRCL

My prior losses definitely affected my play here.

Note: I should be objective and should not let emotions affect me after a significant loss. I must have a solid game plan before entering trades.

Note: I covered way too early in my first trade and should have added in given the trend it was in. My second exit was decent, but I should have anticipated for the $95 break really before covering.

Note: I was just happy I didn't give up trading for the day after the first trade. I just kept going saying that I can still make up. 

 

Got something to say? Say it below!

Watch for 29th

I must remember consistency is the key. I must continue these watchlists to give myself the best chance of success.

Main Watch
ORIG - If oil looks weak tomorrow, then I will be looking to short the open or any pops afterwards.

DRYS - I will short at the open if it looks weak tomorrow risking towards $4.

GILD - I'll short on weakness in the morning for a quick washout. Otherwise, I will wait for a pattern to form afterwards to either go long if a trend forms or short.

Side Watch
BCOR - I will be watching for a continuation and will be getting in on any consolidations.

26th: Poor Risk Assessment

Summary

I played some hard stocks to get ahead today, but I gave it all up because of what? I had no reason to play anything after 11am and the setups were terrible. What the fuck am I trying to prove here? My stops aren't even in the right place. Why the fuck am I not letting the chart prove itself to me?

When I am wrong, I will know it. I can't anticipate being wrong because I don't know if I am wrong until I am wrong! I must let the trade pan out.

I have two more things to work on and they are:
1. Setting up the correct risk for each trade. There is no excuse for not doing this because my position sizing has been getting better.
2. Actually let the risk test out before getting out. Usually, the trade either works or I can get out at a better price than the bottom or top.

Ticker: DD

The risk should have been $67. I did not learn my lesson from fucking last time.

Note: All my troubles would have been gone if I had risked towards $67 over/under. I got scared by the stuff and did not give the chart the chance to prove me wrong.

Note: Even stuffs can fails. Everything in the market can fail and I must realize that. There is nothing that is 100% and I must let the chart prove it to me.

Ticker: WHR

I fucking shorted into a fucking dip. WTF was I thinking?

Note: I was not paying attention to the 5 and 15 minute charts. WTF was I thinking shorting this when I should have been relaxing

Note: I really shouldn't be playing anything after 11 or even near 11 because that's when I have been statistically proven to fail. Why the fuck did I play this? I had nothing to prove at this point.

Note: There was no volume!

Ticker: PRGO

THERE IS NO PLAY HERE!

Note: When I am feeling like shit after a bad play. I will shut down my computer.

Note: There was NO PLAY here and even when there is NO PLAY, I must exit out my position PROPERLY by letting it test $100 over/under.

Got something to say? Say it below!

Watchlist for 26th

I must continue to be consistent in order to get better at trading.

Notes
I didn't expect AMD to fall like that today, but given the charts history, it is something I should have anticipated. The chart gave a good setup for a short and I wasn't prepared for it.

EBIO was a clear miss because I disregarded it since it was on my side watch. I must review all my watch list charts in the morning or else I wasted my time.

Main Watch
VKTX - I am still looking for either a gap towards $2.20s or parabolic towards there. Same plan as yesterday. Consolidation with volume pop and long or gap and short.

MCUR - Same plan with VXTX, but will be looking for that consolidation or fade/reclaim in the morning if it doesn't gap.

PRGO - I will be looking for a STX style bounce in the morning and more fades.

XRX - Same thing as PRGO. I will be looking for more fades after a bounce in the morning.

LGCY - Looking to short into any stuffs in the morning and risk towards $3.

Side Watch
NEOT - I might short if it looks weak. 

Watchlist for 25th

This is my first published watchlist in a while. I will only focus on well thought out ideas from now on.

Main Watches
AMD - Looking for continued breakout.

VKTX - The daily looks okay, but really looking for some volume after consolidation to play long. If it gaps and already goes, I'll be looking to short around $2.25s+.

NGL - Looking for a pop and will short risking high of day.

Side Watches
EBIO - Not sure yet on what to do.

28th, 29th: Poor Entries

Summary

I should not be rushing my trades and getting shit entries. I have to be patience and pounce when I have a chance. There wasn't a trade here because there was no energy behind the first move and it wasn't really holding up.

Ticker: ALDR

Had a long bias and fucked up my second entry long. Afterwards, my poor entries scared me out.

Note: I should not be assuming anything from looking at any chart. I should take the information given to me and react.

Note: There was no passion in the pop, there was no reason to play this.

Note: I must be patient with my entries! 

Ticker: PBYI

I made money off this when I shouldn't have. No plan in the morning and played too much size when SSR was on.

Note: I must be careful and be ready 15 minutes before the morning starts. 

Notice a mistake? Let me know below!

7th-11th: My Thoughts on Market Conditions

Here were my thoughts on the market conditions last week. I don't think anyone would be interested in them now, but I did say I would post them. The reason I didn't post them sooner was because I wanted to include pictures, but that was way too much work. I didn't do any watch lists, but it's about time I get started with them.

For March 7th 2016

I really want to be looking at the SPY, OIL, and GOLD because they seem to be very active right now. I need to form an opinion about them and then think of a strategy to find the best trades. The best trades will lead to the most profits.

The SPY has definitely some resistance at $200 and I will be expecting a pullback tomorrow. If buying pressure continues, I expect the SPY to head towards $205 to test the waters there. If it pulls back, then I will watch it test the $195 levels. I will be expecting a choppy day for the markets tomorrow unless the market heads higher.

Gold future  continues on making big moves and it broke out of its flag on March 4th with heavy selling. I expect a short term consolidation before going higher and won’t be surprised if it wants to test $1300s. I should be thinking of longing gold at this point.  The problem here is if the market wants to continue going higher, then gold might take a drop.

Oil futures have just broken its downtrend today and may find itself heading towards $43.50s levels. It wants to go there and I will want to see how it reacts there. Oil stocks should be on an uptrend as of now.

SDRL - I know this squeezed many people out because they were covering since the owner was investing more money into the company. I will be looking for a long and my target will be towards $8. I’ll look for a uptrend to form before doing so or just a straight pop. If the name fails, I must look for it to peak out at $5.80s. $5.80s is definitely the key level here.

Target: $8+

Support: $5.80s

For March 8th 2016

Today was a big day for oil. I did not trade well because I did not respect my stops. I cared too much about money than the trade. I did not look at all the charts I had for the day so I missed a few trades as well.

So the SPY fended off the sellers and went to test yesterday's highs at 201. It is still in a range between 199 and 201 so I expect it to chop around until it makes a move. Most likely it breaks out tomorrow at this point and goes to test $205. I should be looking to long some big caps stocks. Looking at the big caps, it seems like a lot of them just sold off. Very strange.

Gold futures consolidated as I thought and has the potential to push higher. I expect the push and it to test $1300s.

Oil futures broke out of the downtrend and I should have played some oil today. Any oil name would have been good because it seems to be heavily shorted. I just had to find the right setups. I expect oil to continue its breakout tomorrow and head towards $40s. A pullback may be coming so I must look for the most exaggerated oil stocks and look for shorts.

For March 10th

The SPY sold off yesterday after it couldn’t break $201. It was a great day for shorting any setups that were overextended. It followed the oil move directly. Looking at the chart more closely, I should have expected a pullback based on the bars and volume. Tomorrow I believe the trend continues and tries to break $201. If it doesn’t, it either chops around at this range or it fails and we will be looking at a bear market.

Gold tried to push and breakout, but it failed on the 8th. The uptrend isn’t over yet, but it looks like it may fade off to test $1200 levels. If it holds, expect a breakout to $1300.

Oil touched recent resistance and faded. I should have been focused on closer resistance than later resistance lines. Oil came back strong today and I expect a breakout for tomorrow to test the $40s mark.

For March 11th

Market is confused on where it wants to go. It’s still chopping, but I have a feeling it will want to fade in the upcoming days. Market will be choppy tomorrow between $199 and $201 and will be fading if it peaks $199s.

Gold still wants to breakout above $1280 because the market is acting pretty weak. Expect a breakout to $1300. I should looking for gold stocks that want to go higher.

Oil is peaking at $38.50s despite the high oil fact. If it goes above that, it’ll test $40s. If not, then I expect a fade due to the fundamentals being weak. Very strange it is holding up this long.

Changes

I have made much needed changes to the site and now it's time for me to make a few changes. I've noticed that my progress on becoming a solid trader has grown stagnant and I refuse to fuck around any longer. This isn't because I want to rush things, but I do have some time constraints. If I don't make it, then everything I worked for will go to waste because I will be forced back to hell. I have all the tools now and I need to trade to learn the strategies that I believe are viable.

I have been negative throughout my posts and I don't believe it is doing anything but bringing me down. I will make it my mission to start being more positive and to bring back positive thinking in my life.

How do I become better?  
1. I will start posting my thoughts on the market conditions daily. 
2. I will post a daily watchlist and form a plan each prior day. 

3. I must become more confident in myself. No more negativity from here on out.

4. I will go over at least one video lesson per day from Investors Underground and take notes to better understand the strategies.

5. I will focus on trading every morning as every day I don't trade correctly is a day wasted. 

I noticed that I haven't been working hard enough. But now, I must work harder and smarter than ever before if I am going to make it.

3rd: No Edge

Summary

I did not play the stocks well today. My entries were piss poor and I was not able to find an edge in the majority of the stocks I played today.

Ticker: PRAH

My initial entry was bad and I had no reason to think that this would go higher because the trend did not form at all. I got psyched out on my initial short and should have risked higher.

 Note: I  need to be patient with my entry and have a plan before I enter these trades.

Ticker: HABT

I have seen something like this before where it just fades towards the end of the day. I did not let this setup work because my stop was too tight.

Note: I need to let the chart confirm that my risk has been hit instead of just assuming it has been hit. I must be patient.

Ticker: CIEN

There was no trade here.

Note: This was just a waste of commission.

Ticker: GRPN

The trade here just didn't work.

 Note: The trade didn't work and I have to accept it. I need to go through more of these trades in order to see if it is profitable or not.

 

Got something to say? Say it below!

 

2nd: Read the news!

Summary

I played a few stocks and they were losers. I need to learn how to minimize my risk more or else it will kill me eventually. 

Ticker: BGFV

My entry was poor and a symmetrical formed. I got out in time tho.

Note: I need to get in earlier on these stocks to be in a good position.

Ticker: CBPO

Piss poor entry, but okay exit. I did not read the news on this one and it burned me.

Note: The news told the story that the second public offering was at $110. I should have known that anything below that was a buy and anything above that was a short because it stalled at $110 throughout the day. 

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