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Thursday, February 26, 2015

Breakouts or Fakeouts

Breakouts

I wanted to take the time to analyze how intra-day breakout charts should look like compared to how intra-day fakeout charts look like. These seem to be the signs I tend to notice before the big move and what I should look out for in the future so I don't miss out. 

Ticker: DSCO

So I chose this chart because it was clearly in a ascending triangle. Today was the day it broke out, but I did not play it since I was focused elsewhere. I think an ideal breakout chart should look something like this. At the end, I didn't want to chase so I just let it be.
I noticed that the range got a little tighter and an ABCD type pattern forming. When the pattern grew a bit steeper, I should have known that a big move was coming. The volume was solid and I should have looked at this as a positive sign. 

Intraday looked perfect. It broke previous resistance with great volume. I dipped and this is where I should have bouggt. I was where I got alerted too. I was blinded and did not even take it. An ideal breakout is one like this, great volume and good patterns. No problems!
Note: It seems like a good break of the previous resistance plus insane volume indicates a good chart. I could have even seen an ABCD pattern here and purchased. It was great throughout the rest of the day.

Ticker: PPP

So yesterday, this chart broke out completely and I missed the initial move. I just got in today @ $3.54. This chart looks pretty good for a nice pop.

I actually missed the ascending triangle forming for this chart because I did not look at the 15 minutes. Look how similar this breakout looks like to DSCO. It was a clear breakout plus the bars were near the upperend of the pattern.
Note: I don't think it matters that much where the bars were before the breakout, but I think there needs to be either a clear breakout or descent breakout with great volume. Anything else could be just a fake.

The volumes here aren't very clear, but the chart tells a different story. Again, volume is just a tool to aid the charts so the charts is the end factor. If there is a clear breakout, then I would have to play it regardless. Any previous days volume seem to affect the performance of the beginning of the next day. For example, the volume seemed to have done well, but it was a grind upwards because it slammed down the first clear break. This seems like an opportunity to purchase the stock at a better price.
Note: Remember, these signals work best for charts that have taken a beating. Not charts that look too overextended.

Fakeouts

Ticker: ZNGA

In the beginning, it looked like it was ready, but there was no clear breakout. I tried to follow the volume, but got burned because of it.


The volume looked decent, yes, but it did not reflect how the chart was doing. For stocks that have a lot of volume, it is better for the breakout to occur than to count on any volume. However, the volume indicated when I should get out which saved my ass.
Note: These are all similar charts, but the ones that broke out was obvious because it did straight out of the gate. The ones that don't are most likely fakeouts.

Recovery - Update 03/04/2015

After a failed breakout, I immediately took this off my watchlist. However, looking back, I should have noticed that it did hold the channel and that was the safest time to buy.
I need to remember that charts could hold multiple patterns and can operate on multiple time frames. Since these charts are hard to find, I need to be aware that a chart could still breakout after the first failure.

Check this out to see what I mean: WEN

Sidenotes

I don't  know how many times I have to tell myself this, but the chart is always right. Volume is only a tool used to gauge the chart. Volume cannot be depended upon. A clear breakout with good volume is great while a clear breakout with low volume means that it can still grind back up. No breakout with good volume just means that it hit resistance.

Breakouts don't usually last unless they look good on the daily as well. You should sell the day of the breakout or a specified time of when you think you should sell. 

Please let me know if you have any comments or opinions. I would like to know if you have spotted any mistakes in my logic.

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Twenty Fourth: Small Change

Summary


I had a good chart today, but did not set my stops. That and me getting frazzled and startled by the fact that I was liquidated again. I really need to be careful now because I am low on funds. I have decided to completely change my game and play swings. I will use the rest of the time to get better at analysis and other stuff.

Ticker: CRMD

My plan was good, but my execution was piss poor. I did not add a stop which could have saved me if I lowered it. I neglected to sell the first drop knowing that it could bounce. I was saved by the liquidation. Seriously? Is Suretrader's liquidation system a better trader than I am?
Note: I really need a good set of rules for stocks. I think there is so many things to keep track of, I am forgetting some of the most basic things. The first strong bar in the morning could have been a signal for a bounce off support. If it was weak, it would have just fell through the support. After being surprised from the auto-sell, I completely missed the ascending triangle. I sold out before it though. 

Note: I need to stay calm at all times. I need to remember my rules for a trade. I needed a stop and I needed to sell as soon as it hits its first support.

Ticker: SREV

I was initially aiming for the breakout, but it didn't happen. I noticed the definite breakdown of the trend, so I just got in @ $3.62. I am going to wait a few days for this to fall flat.
This chart is pretty choppy, so I put my stop @ $3.91. I am hoping this is a good start to my new beginnings. 

Side-Note: I have decided to change my game to long swings due to my shortage in funding. Let's see how I do. I really want to prove to myself that I can rebuild my account before the summer.

Please let me know if you have any comments or opinions. I would like to know if you have spotted any mistakes in my logic.

Monday, February 23, 2015

Twenty Third: It's a Trap!

Summary


I did not follow my original plan because I got scared out of my position. If I held strong, I would have not lost as much as I wanted to on commissions. Other than that, I think I did an okay job with my longs to shorts switching. There are plenty to work on, but not following my own plan is just a big blow to my morale because of how basic that concept should be.

The stock below was kind of hard to play for me and I was trapped multiple times. I completely was off with volume and level 2 because it was low with small pops. If I followed the trends, I would have been okay. 

Ticker: RIGL

Another mess of a trade because I was not patient. Lost too much on commissions.
I learned that a chart that gaps and doesn't continue will typically go sideways throughout the day. If it holds the channel, it can squeeze the shorts. I played both long and short and switched accordingly. However, I did not follow my plan which burned me at the end. 

This chart had low volume all day. For these types of charts, I must depend on the uptrend and downtrend patterns. It broke out from my initial symmetrical triangle so I longed. When it went down, I sold off and drew and new downtrend line. I then purchased on the next pop. I did, but waited too long to sell. My stop at the time was $3.51 and when it reached $3.50, I got scared and sold off! It didn't touch $3.51 and just dropped before it broke out of the downtrend. I should have just followed the trends. Volume here didn't help much.
Note: I need to stick to my plan and the trends I draw. Especially for stocks with low volume, I read the LVL2 incorrectly and it tricked me twice. On my last try to long, I followed the volume instead of the trend and called it a day. Two minutes later, it just broke out and I lost even more on commission. I really need to the trends.

Note: Other than that, my transitions from long to short got better. I need to remember that volume is there to help, but the chart is what matters. All I needed to do was follow the trends to be okay. I also need to know if it is worth the time to spend on one chart compared to another.

Side Note: This stock was referred to me by VinnyB. I really appreciated it, but I don't think I will be going into stocks that I am not familiar with. The times I do, I get fucked because I am not skilled enough to play on the spot. I need to solidify my basic knowledge with stocks I am familiar or else I won't be skilled enough to play a random one. 

Please let me know if you have any comments or opinions. I would like to know if you have spotted any mistakes in my logic.

Twentieth: Beginning of The End

Summary

I'd never thought I would do it, but it is almost over for me. Fuck up after fuck up has caused my account to dwindle in size. I haven't hit rock bottom, but I am dangerously close. All of this were due to mistakes that could have been prevented. Trading when I am not 100% is a big one. Execution is the name of the game and being tired definitely does not help. I thought I was starting to get a good run, but it seems like every time I move one step forward, I move two steps back. This is because one, I use all my energy on the first one and I forget the little things for my other trades.

I might have to win one stock and call it a day until I do it consistently. The challenge for me is to build my account back to size. So far, I have been losing badly. I also need a day to review trade theories because I haven't for a long time. 

Ticker: BLDR

I missed the morning washout and wanted to wait for it to drop. It was just channeling forever and my patience ran out after the short pop. I stopped paying attention which was my mistake. I just assumed that it was going to bounce back up. However, as soon as I stopped looking, it just broke down of the channel and fell. 

Note: I should not discount a chart because it did not work out the first time. Especially a chart like this where the volume was super low in the channel. I should have found it as a sign of weakness and put an alert if it dropped below the channel. It is something I must remember in the future. 

Ticker: AXN

My win of the day and something I should have just ended with. I noticed the symmetrical triangle flag thing forming and was waiting for either a break out or breakdown. The volume was extremely high and when it broke down, I just bought in. I drew trendlines to guide my prices and covered @ $1.99.
Note: This is how all my trades should be. Very simple and straightforward. It either works or it doesn't. I wish I added more size into this one. I didn't because I did not want to chase. I didn't know how much more it can go down.

Ticker: GENE

I fought the trend on this one and was hoping for it to bounce. It did a similar thing as the last bounce, but there was not enough volume to support it. I should have noticed quickly and sold out. The drop was not big enough to cause a bounce. More emotion was needed like in the last one.
Note: I really fucked up here because I fought the trend again. Unless there is a huge washout, I should not expect a stock to bounce. There was no high volume or anything. Everything was in my head. I also bought instead of sold because I was stupid. I need to stop with these mistakes, it's costing me a lot of commissions. I need to be calm and collective when I trade.

 Ticker: THRX


I really fucked myself here because not only did I fight the trend, but I also decided to be emotional after the first failed trade. My emotions got the best to me. At the end, I won a little back, but I still fucked up because I was too tired to trade. I was tired and not paying attention when SureTrader liquidated me. I bought more and sold again wasting commission.

I had a decent trade for this one, but my emotions got the best of me. I made a careless trade again, but I waited it out till the end. $18.50 was my target entry and as soon as I noticed the sudden drop, I got in.
Note: I got in, but I was liquidated by SureTrader because I was over margin. I got fucked completely because I was just tired and not in a state to trade.

Note: I should have just noticed that for charts that are just grinding up non-stop, I want to be on the backside of the move or notice to go long. I could have made money going up. Instead, I was stubborn and got bit by the snake. I need to get better at not fighting the trends and going with it.

Why am I posting this shit?
Because I want to get better! I want to shame myself so I do not make these mistakes again.

Please let me know if you have any comments or opinions. I would like to know if you have spotted any mistakes in my logic.

Thursday, February 19, 2015

Trading Analysis

Ticker: ANGI

I am officially too poor to trade now, so I have resulted to doing trade analysis for myself to practice. This will help me in the long run because it will force me to look at each trade carefully and remind me of things I should be looking out for.  

I made this analysis on today's volatile mover ANGI. At first glance, the analysis may be very complicated and I am not sure if I am actually on the right track here. I made it based on my own experiences trading. So as I was watching this chart, there was this one bar that convinced me to buy, but I read the situation completely wrong. Luckily, I did not buy. After the morning move was completed, I went back to the drawing board to write up what I should have done.  

Analysis for Bounce Play

This chart had a huge day yesterday and during pre-market today, this chart just gapped down. My first indicator shows huge interest and it is ultimately negative as it gapped down and closed red. This means that the buyers were not able to overcome the sellers at this point. The next two bars, the price jumped, but the interest of the stock went down. This would have been a great place for me to start my short. 

On this analysis, I focus on when the bounce is. Indicator 3 was where I thought the bounce was initially, but looking back, I was foolish because the the volume did not even spike yet. I completely forgot about volume which is not a good sign. 

Start from Indicator 1 through 8 and it will tell you what indicators there are. I will be looking at this chart for review everyday. Since I am out of money, I will look for charts like these and maybe even swing charts and try to come up with signs of when to long or short.

In other news, I was stopped out of FMD @ $5.33. Fuck me.

Please let me know if you have any comments or opinions. I would like to know if you have spotted any mistakes in my logic.

Wednesday, February 18, 2015

The Eighteenth: Slow And Steady

Summary


I felt more focused today and was able to actually make okay trades. I still lost because of my initial entries and blunders, but it is much better than how I did last week. Hopefully more days like these are to come and I can finally start building my account. 

Just like my stupid mistake, I entered a limit instead of stop-limit which costed me commission and a good entry price. I seriously need to double check every time before I make a trade. I need to get used to just having it right.

Ticker: GENE

I was happy to say that I was using multiple time frames for this chart, but I did not focus enough. I was looking for a bounce and after the first higher high and higher low, I dove in. Unfortunately, at this time, I did not pay attention to the 1 minute chart which could have saved me a lot of headache.
My charts looked a little different live because I was using TD Architect, but I was not paying attention. I should have known that my buy in was still a pop for the overall downtrend. The 15 minute chart made it seem like it would bounce from here. Both of the information combined helps tremendously, but I need to use them better to be more effective.
Note: I liked how I used the 15 minute, 5 minute, and 1 minute charts to help determine where the bounce was. I was primarily using the 15 minute because it seemed like this chart would take a bit longer to find a bottom. Half and whole dollar marks help, but I still need to focus to see similar patterns to be sure that my bounce is not just a pop.

Note: I liked how I got out quickly once I realized it was a mistake. I then was patient and made back some of the money by noticing a lower high @ $9.12. I am happy that I did not over trade this stock.  

Ticker: FMD

I got in for a swing short @ $5.32. However, I was stupid and sold out by setting the wrong order. I then re-shorted @ $5.27. My stop is @ $5.33 for this one.
Note: If I am going to keep putting in the wrong orders, I should stop trading. This is ridiculous because it is a novice mistake.

Please let me know if you have any comments or opinions. I would like to know if you have spotted any mistakes in my logic.

Tuesday, February 17, 2015

The Seventeenth: Death

Summary


Death draws near as my account size has dwindled in a span of just three days. From JOEZ to poor trades, and now this. Why am I posting these horrendous trades? It is because I am shaming myself so I do not repeat these mistakes in the future. I neared an almost $200 loss today with TD and Suretrader. It seems like I am completely out of the game. The only way to play from now on is to play the right way. Any screws up here on out will mean my account will be blown up.

Ticker: WHX/WHXT

I must remind myself in these situations to sell at the first chance. I couldn't with SureTrader, but I definitely could have with TDAmeritrade. This was like JOEZ, there was light support at $0.42 and I could have got out much earlier than $0.38. I just hoped for some sort of bounce, but it didn't matter.
Note: For stocks down on news, get straight out in the morning like JOEZ. I thought this was a decent trade, but I should check next time for delisting violations a stock may have.

Ticker: CRIS


A plan that just didn't work out. This is how I would like to play all my plays. Two trades, in and out. Add more if it works, get out if it doesn't. Plain and Simple!


I saw a head and shoulder pattern and thought it may fade toward end of day. I shorted @ $3.34, but gout out @ $3.38 after the strong push towards my stop @ $3.45.
 Note: I noticed something very crazy while trading this stock. This stock had a 10k block @ $3.32 and this was when I should have sold. It briefly touched it and just jumped back up. It appeared again, but never touched it afterwards. I need to use this as a signal. If it doesn't even scratch the block, then the stock is bullish, if it does and it goes quickly, be prepared to short more.

Note: I am dangerous territory right now. Anymore screw ups and it will be the end of me. I will come back and try my ass off to get my account back on track. 

Please let me know if you have any comments or opinions. I would like to know if you have spotted any mistakes in my logic.

Monday, February 16, 2015

The Thirteenth: Last Breath

Summary



I suppose they don't call it Friday the Thirteenth for nothing. It was supposed to be a special day for me but, I called it a day after a few poor trades and decided to take the weekend off. I came back today and I found this. One of the decent stocks I wanted to swing overnight reported this and it looks like it will go to shit tomorrow. I don't even know if I can even trade it with SureTrader, but I will ask before market opens. I need to get out as soon as possible. The above statement is basically the summary of my trading performance last week. 

Ticker: CSLT


I started out fine, but as time went on, it seems like I have forgotten my rules.

When I was scanning this chart, I noticed what happened before so I was hoping for that kind of action.

I started off strong and read the volume and Lvl2 precisely. I covered at the right time before the bounce as well, but I still had a bearish bias for this chart and wanted to short again. I should have left it alone after it bounced back into where it came from. Next time, I should notice if the bounce is strong or not. If it is strong, then I should think that the bulls are in control. I missed an ABCD pattern as well because of my stubbornness to change positions.
Note: Notice how a chart bounces. If it is a strong bounce all the way to the top, then it should still be bullish. I should have prepared for a long instead of shorting. I also shorted too many times and the last short was because of anger which should not have happened. 

Ticker: GTXI

This stock was not moving as I wanted to so I just sold out in the morning.

Note: I need to stick with this mentality of trading. As soon as I see signs of stocks that are not moving the way I want, I need to get out. If I didn't, it would have been very bad as you see here. 

Ticker: NQ





I was not patient enough and should have waited for more confirmation on this chart. I rushed and bought my second portion too soon. 
My plan was to play the breakout, but it didn't happen.

I should have waited a bit longer to buy my second portion.

Ticker: WHX

This chart really looked like it will go parabolic. I bought in and decided to hold overnight stupidly thinking nothing would happen.
Note: I should have been very suspicious of this chart and why doing this. I did and found out that they were going to give out a large dividend sometime soon and the buy in was the 19th. However, I did not notice that during aftermarkets, NYSE delisted them and now I may be fucked. 

Note: I need to get out in the morning. I should not hold suspicious stocks overnight.

What am I to do? I gotta get the fuck out and sell in the morning. 

Please let me know if you have any comments or opinions. I would like to know if you have spotted any mistakes in my logic.

Thursday, February 12, 2015

The Twelve: Beating a Dead Horse

Summary


Yesterday's negativity has officially poured over into today. Just another horrible day overall and it's all because I did not take my profits when I should have. I did not do my homework and got burned as well. My approach was too narrow and I did not see the big picture. I need to go back to the drawing board and try to figure it out. I have been burning cash too fast and at this rate, I'll be out of the game by next week. 

On the other hand, I did notice negative news today on JOEZ, so I got out in the morning as soon as I could. It would have been devastating if I held on. 

Ticker: OPK 

What a damn mess. I started out fine, but I rushed to add in once it hit the new lows. New lows is when I should be selling, not adding in. The bounce was unexpected so I didn't prepare my stop fast enough. I really need to know if the stocks bounces like this so I can prepare better. I should have sold out during the lows instead of adding in. My mentality was that it could go down even lower. This needs to stop. I need to take my profits. I also need to stop rushing my adds when it's already too low.
Note: I could have made money on my first two shorting attempts if I realized that the lows are an indicator of support. I cannot expect it to just go lower because I think so. It goes back to the idea that it doesn't have to go lower. The second time the support held should have been obvious. 

Note: Setting stops is a must, but I have realized that it sometimes cannot be filled.So I either need to sell earlier and keep profits or sell while I am still in profits. I do not want a situation where it just doesn't fill and I in the negative. 

Note: I need to remember that profit is profit and it's better than a loss. I need to realize the big picture and remember to watch volume. I did not notice the crazy volume until after. I need to not add when it's already near its lows. 

Ticker: JOEZ

I would have been completely screwed if I did not read the news. Fortunately I did. JOEZ canceled their earnings report conference call today and it caused a total panic. I knew it was bad, so I sold right out in the morning. Knowing the news saved my ass.


It would have been decent today if they didn't cancel their earnings.
Note: I wanted to get out some time morning, but after the news, I wanted to get out as soon as possible. News is sometimes important and can influence a stock greatly. Pay attention to it and it might save your ass too.

Note: This is an example of not having a plan and knowing when to sell. I should have sold partially during great strength so I lock in profits. I can't get greedy.

I also knew something so early and could have shorted this for 20%. I was stupid that I did not take advantage of the news. 

Ticker: GTXI

Not as clear cut as JOEZ, but it has potential. I bought in a little to test it out. It has some good potential .
Note: My mind has been exhausted from trading today. I lost big these past two days and could use a break. Like I said before, I might need to go back to the drawing board and think things through.

Side Note: I have noticed that I have stopped making plans for each of my trades. This is bad and I think I will start doing that from now on. 

Please let me know if you have any comments or opinions. I would like to know if you have spotted any mistakes in my logic.

Wednesday, February 11, 2015

The Eleventh: Stupid Mistake

 Summary


I did horribly today because I made a horrible mistake. I set my stop to a buy instead of a sell and it just bought me in at the worst time possible. After the mistake, my trading was complete off and I just ignored rules. At the end, this costed me over $100 for commission plus losses.

Ticker: MRGE

Originally, I saw this chart and it broke below the channel. Since the channel acted as a sort of resistance yesterday, I took a partial position @ $4.43. I thought it was would act as a resistance, but looking back now, I should have waited for it to test further.
Note: The good thing about this trade was that I  remembered to add a stop soon after my short. I was stopped out and that was the end of that. A stock that doesn't work out, but done with good execution is a-OK in my book. 

Note: Let the resistance be tested more before buying in. Be more patient and you will not even have to waste money on commissions. 

Ticker: ARRY 

This was complete fuck up that screwed my whole day. I purchased @ $8.00 for a bounce and I hoped for it to break $8.10 for a short squeeze. I added in @ $8.06 near the top and the whole thing just fell apart which didn't even leave me time to setup a stop. I thought this would just channel so I just left a stop @ $7.95. I focused on OPK for a bit and to my horror, I found out that I bought more instead of selling. I sold out, but wanted it to bounce and kept messing up.

 Note: If I haven't made the mistake of buying instead of selling, I would have been okay. I need to be careful and double check when I set my stops. 

Note: First, I set the stop too late and I did not realize that the ascending triangle seemed too steep. I did not look at volume and see that the shorts were absorbing all the longs at $8.06. The break was sudden and I should have made my stop tighter especially since this stock has a tendency to drop quickly. It also seemed to reach its resistance. I need to set my stop so I break even instead of losing out. This is a bad habit that I need to break.

Note: I need to remember that if I sell, I could always buy back. I need to sell quickly to prevent losses. I need to remember that bounces do not always work and that it is better to be in cash than to have it not bounce like in this situation. 

Note: I need to realize that I need to switch sides if one of my positions do not work. If I have a long bias and it does not work, I need to switch to a short bias quickly. This goes the same the other way.

Ticker: OPK

VinnyB introduced me to this stock and alerted me when it was forming the descending triangle. I took a position quickly and gout out before the short bounce to fix my ARRY problem. Do you notice the head and shoulders pattern? I did not see anything because I was way to distracted.
Note: I need to focus on my winners instead of my losers. Because of ARRY, I forgot about this stock and that was a mistake.

Sidenote: I added more into JOEZ.

Please let me know if you have any comments or opinions. I would like to know if you have spotted any mistakes in my logic.

Tuesday, February 10, 2015

The Tenth: Comeback

Ticker: MRGE



I decided to play MRGE and was happy that I only got in and out. I stuck with my advice and just played it once. I put a stop because I couldn't monitor it. It didn't work out, but at least I did not spend more on commission than I had to. 

I played this because it looked overextended. I wanted to short swing it because it made a lower low and lower high. All it had to do was go in my favor. However, the longs were strong on this one and it stayed put which means it seems like it just consolidated. This chart seems to be flagging and I will not have short biased with it unless it definitely breaks down. 

It was weak in the morning so I thought that it will just rebound quickly and fall again like it did on the previous day. So it quickly rebounded and I bought a partial position @ $4.40. I didn't rush this time and put a stop @ $4.46 with a limit of $4.45 because I needed to leave. Upon my return, it was resilient and I was stopped out.  
Note: I was happy that I did not rush this trade and let it test its resistance. I was going to short more more, but it just held the channel with a small dip towards the end. I would have covered lower if I had the chance, but was stopped out. 

Ticker: JOEZ

After my miserable loss with KRED, I went back to the basics. This chart was channeling for a while until it broke out. I knew that if it held its trend in the morning, that it was bound to go higher. I bought in @ $0.45 and will hold for a long swing. Maybe a day or two. 
Note: I wanted to buy more, but was patient because it was slow moving. I didn't get in at the best price because I rushed the purchase and was faked out by the volume. I will buy in the beginning tomorrow and will hold until the next resistance or higher. 

Note: This trade was to make up for my miserable attempt with KRED. I went back to the basics and found something that might actually work. It gave me some confidence which I deeply needed. 

BTW: I changed the format of my titles and will continue on experimenting to make it better. 

Please let me know if you have any comments or opinions. I would like to know if you have spotted any mistakes in my logic.