Tenth: Fucked Up

Summary

I fucked up today and there is no excuse for it. I traded like shit and got what I deserved. I am not sure where to go from here. My equity is dwindling to nothing now and I am basically back to square one.

Ticker:  SIGM

 

The overall chart. 

The first add was because of the first 2 minute higher high. However, the chart quickly washed out and I needed to get out. The second add was because of the higher high again, but I got scared out of the position because my stop was too tight. I am glad I got sold out at $9.25 and used my lesson from yesterday to guide this trade. That lesson was to treat positions that go against the overall trend as scalps.

Note: This was a trade where I could have scaled in and anticipated the the long. However, I did not think of that and got scared out off my position a few times. I need to be aware of this scaling in situations.

Ticker: SGMO 

The overall chart.

 

I played the frontside of the move and got fucked. I did it because of the double top and lower lows. However, it just reclaimed and went straight up. I shit the bed on this one.

Note: I shit the bed and broke my rules on this trade. I was impatient with this chart and wanted to get in at a good entry. This led me to trade erratically with no risk in mind. I tried to scale in and did not realize that this was just a dip before another leg up.

Note: I have to realize that there are plenty of opportunities in these kinds of stocks and not to break my rules to try to get the best entry. The best entry for my account would be to wait until the backside of the move. If, I waited, I still would have had a nice trade.

Ticker: AKBA

Emotional trading kills. I meany stop, not stock.

Note: This was an emotional trade. This is a stock I should have never played because of its low volume in the afternoon. The morning would have been okay, but this was just bad on my part.  

Note: I cannot trade if I don't get enough sleep. Waking up at 9:00am to trade is not right. I must be ready for the day with my homework done. No homework, no play.  

See something I did wrong today? Let me know by commenting below. 

Too Patient

Ticker: CERE

I should have bought in when it made a higher low in anticipation for a breakout. I was too late today because I thought it was just testing $0.38 as resistance. When it broke out, I did not want to chase so I let it go. 

I thought it was just testing the resistance today. I already missed out on the break of the smaller channel so I did not want to chase.

I tried to be patient for this chart because it looked like it was consolidating before the breakout. I should have just bought in when the risk was low and been patient with a position. When it broke out, I had no chance and did not want to chase. Next time, I will be ready. 

XRA was a good example of buying in and being patient.  

Breakouts or Fakeouts

Breakouts

I wanted to take the time to analyze how intra-day breakout charts should look like compared to how intra-day fakeout charts look like. These seem to be the signs I tend to notice before the big move and what I should look out for in the future so I don't miss out. 

Ticker: DSCO

So I chose this chart because it was clearly in a ascending triangle. Today was the day it broke out, but I did not play it since I was focused elsewhere. I think an ideal breakout chart should look something like this. At the end, I didn't want to chase so I just let it be.

I noticed that the range got a little tighter and an ABCD type pattern forming. When the pattern grew a bit steeper, I should have known that a big move was coming. The volume was solid and I should have looked at this as a positive sign. 

Intraday looked perfect. It broke previous resistance with great volume. I dipped and this is where I should have bouggt. I was where I got alerted too. I was blinded and did not even take it. An ideal breakout is one like this, great volume and good patterns. No problems!

Note: It seems like a good break of the previous resistance plus insane volume indicates a good chart. I could have even seen an ABCD pattern here and purchased. It was great throughout the rest of the day.

Ticker: PPP

So yesterday, this chart broke out completely and I missed the initial move. I just got in today @ $3.54. This chart looks pretty good for a nice pop.

I actually missed the ascending triangle forming for this chart because I did not look at the 15 minutes. Look how similar this breakout looks like to DSCO. It was a clear breakout plus the bars were near the upperend of the pattern.

Note: I don't think it matters that much where the bars were before the breakout, but I think there needs to be either a clear breakout or descent breakout with great volume. Anything else could be just a fake.

The volumes here aren't very clear, but the chart tells a different story. Again, volume is just a tool to aid the charts so the charts is the end factor. If there is a clear breakout, then I would have to play it regardless. Any previous days volume seem to affect the performance of the beginning of the next day. For example, the volume seemed to have done well, but it was a grind upwards because it slammed down the first clear break. This seems like an opportunity to purchase the stock at a better price.

Note: Remember, these signals work best for charts that have taken a beating. Not charts that look too overextended.

Fakeouts

Ticker: ZNGA

In the beginning, it looked like it was ready, but there was no clear breakout. I tried to follow the volume, but got burned because of it.

The volume looked decent, yes, but it did not reflect how the chart was doing. For stocks that have a lot of volume, it is better for the breakout to occur than to count on any volume. However, the volume indicated when I should get out which saved my ass.

Note: These are all similar charts, but the ones that broke out was obvious because it did straight out of the gate. The ones that don't are most likely fakeouts.

Recovery - Update 03/04/2015

After a failed breakout, I immediately took this off my watchlist. However, looking back, I should have noticed that it did hold the channel and that was the safest time to buy.

I need to remember that charts could hold multiple patterns and can operate on multiple time frames. Since these charts are hard to find, I need to be aware that a chart could still breakout after the first failure.

Check this out to see what I mean: WEN

Sidenotes

I don't  know how many times I have to tell myself this, but the chart is always right. Volume is only a tool used to gauge the chart. Volume cannot be depended upon. A clear breakout with good volume is great while a clear breakout with low volume means that it can still grind back up. No breakout with good volume just means that it hit resistance.

Breakouts don't usually last unless they look good on the daily as well. You should sell the day of the breakout or a specified time of when you think you should sell. 

Please let me know if you have any comments or opinions. I would like to know if you have spotted any mistakes in my logic.

Trading Analysis

Ticker: ANGI

I am officially too poor to trade now, so I have resulted to doing trade analysis for myself to practice. This will help me in the long run because it will force me to look at each trade carefully and remind me of things I should be looking out for.  

I made this analysis on today's volatile mover ANGI. At first glance, the analysis may be very complicated and I am not sure if I am actually on the right track here. I made it based on my own experiences trading. So as I was watching this chart, there was this one bar that convinced me to buy, but I read the situation completely wrong. Luckily, I did not buy. After the morning move was completed, I went back to the drawing board to write up what I should have done.  

Analysis for Bounce Play

This chart had a huge day yesterday and during pre-market today, this chart just gapped down. My first indicator shows huge interest and it is ultimately negative as it gapped down and closed red. This means that the buyers were not able to overcome the sellers at this point. The next two bars, the price jumped, but the interest of the stock went down. This would have been a great place for me to start my short. 

On this analysis, I focus on when the bounce is. Indicator 3 was where I thought the bounce was initially, but looking back, I was foolish because the the volume did not even spike yet. I completely forgot about volume which is not a good sign. 

Start from Indicator 1 through 8 and it will tell you what indicators there are. I will be looking at this chart for review everyday. Since I am out of money, I will look for charts like these and maybe even swing charts and try to come up with signs of when to long or short.

In other news, I was stopped out of FMD @ $5.33. Fuck me.

Please let me know if you have any comments or opinions. I would like to know if you have spotted any mistakes in my logic.