7th-11th: My Thoughts on Market Conditions

Here were my thoughts on the market conditions last week. I don't think anyone would be interested in them now, but I did say I would post them. The reason I didn't post them sooner was because I wanted to include pictures, but that was way too much work. I didn't do any watch lists, but it's about time I get started with them.

For March 7th 2016

I really want to be looking at the SPY, OIL, and GOLD because they seem to be very active right now. I need to form an opinion about them and then think of a strategy to find the best trades. The best trades will lead to the most profits.

The SPY has definitely some resistance at $200 and I will be expecting a pullback tomorrow. If buying pressure continues, I expect the SPY to head towards $205 to test the waters there. If it pulls back, then I will watch it test the $195 levels. I will be expecting a choppy day for the markets tomorrow unless the market heads higher.

Gold future  continues on making big moves and it broke out of its flag on March 4th with heavy selling. I expect a short term consolidation before going higher and won’t be surprised if it wants to test $1300s. I should be thinking of longing gold at this point.  The problem here is if the market wants to continue going higher, then gold might take a drop.

Oil futures have just broken its downtrend today and may find itself heading towards $43.50s levels. It wants to go there and I will want to see how it reacts there. Oil stocks should be on an uptrend as of now.

SDRL - I know this squeezed many people out because they were covering since the owner was investing more money into the company. I will be looking for a long and my target will be towards $8. I’ll look for a uptrend to form before doing so or just a straight pop. If the name fails, I must look for it to peak out at $5.80s. $5.80s is definitely the key level here.

Target: $8+

Support: $5.80s

For March 8th 2016

Today was a big day for oil. I did not trade well because I did not respect my stops. I cared too much about money than the trade. I did not look at all the charts I had for the day so I missed a few trades as well.

So the SPY fended off the sellers and went to test yesterday's highs at 201. It is still in a range between 199 and 201 so I expect it to chop around until it makes a move. Most likely it breaks out tomorrow at this point and goes to test $205. I should be looking to long some big caps stocks. Looking at the big caps, it seems like a lot of them just sold off. Very strange.

Gold futures consolidated as I thought and has the potential to push higher. I expect the push and it to test $1300s.

Oil futures broke out of the downtrend and I should have played some oil today. Any oil name would have been good because it seems to be heavily shorted. I just had to find the right setups. I expect oil to continue its breakout tomorrow and head towards $40s. A pullback may be coming so I must look for the most exaggerated oil stocks and look for shorts.

For March 10th

The SPY sold off yesterday after it couldn’t break $201. It was a great day for shorting any setups that were overextended. It followed the oil move directly. Looking at the chart more closely, I should have expected a pullback based on the bars and volume. Tomorrow I believe the trend continues and tries to break $201. If it doesn’t, it either chops around at this range or it fails and we will be looking at a bear market.

Gold tried to push and breakout, but it failed on the 8th. The uptrend isn’t over yet, but it looks like it may fade off to test $1200 levels. If it holds, expect a breakout to $1300.

Oil touched recent resistance and faded. I should have been focused on closer resistance than later resistance lines. Oil came back strong today and I expect a breakout for tomorrow to test the $40s mark.

For March 11th

Market is confused on where it wants to go. It’s still chopping, but I have a feeling it will want to fade in the upcoming days. Market will be choppy tomorrow between $199 and $201 and will be fading if it peaks $199s.

Gold still wants to breakout above $1280 because the market is acting pretty weak. Expect a breakout to $1300. I should looking for gold stocks that want to go higher.

Oil is peaking at $38.50s despite the high oil fact. If it goes above that, it’ll test $40s. If not, then I expect a fade due to the fundamentals being weak. Very strange it is holding up this long.