No Chance

I blew it.

I forgot that CyGroup included the Sterling Pro bill for the current month, so the dream is over. I prepared diligently for this month and have nothing to show for it. This has been a devastating blow to my spirit and mind; but like the market, anything can happen.

I really don't know where to go from here. I guess that is the life of a maverick.

P.S. If you guys want more, check out Vinny's blog. 

Do or Die

My Situation 
I traded like shit this month and my CyGroup account reflects it. My account will be frozen once it reaches a -$3800 balance and I have a -$3400 balance now. This means I only have $400 in my account which will be $163.20 next month after the platform/data fees. Next month is my last chance to prove to myself that I have what it takes to be a consistent trader.

It will be the toughest month of my life and will determine my fate as a winner or a loser.

What's next?
I have been trading for the past two years and everything has come to these final moments. My odds of surviving are slim to none given my circumstances. However, I am not going to quit. I will review everything I learned and grind my ass off next month. I will do whatever it takes to become consistent.

I'll see you guys on the other side. 

8th: Not Respecting Stops

Summary

I did not respect my risk and the trade took me out of the game today. This is the reason why stops are so important and why I must just get out when my risk area is hit. 

Lessons 

1. I must respect my risk levels and know when I am wrong.

2. I must take what I can get and not be greedy.

3. I must play the game towards my strengths.

Ticker: EW

The daily.

I didn't get out when I was ahead and I just kept trying to get out at the bid when this thing was jumping up.

Note: I should have realized that it was going up at $103.60s. I got greedy and paid for it.

Note: There was a big spread and no sellers. I thought I would get out when it retraces, but it just went straight up. I had no chance.

Note: Next time I have trouble getting out of a situation, I am going to just take the loss and take the ask. 

I tried again and got killed.

Note: I should stick to my strengths and not short weakness.

Note: I should review when to get out of positions. Especially if they are as clear as this one. 

Notice a mistake? Let me know below! 

27th: Breaking Rules

 Summary

Whenever I broke my rules and lost big from a trade, I would assume I couldn't trade the chart anymore because of its high price or volatility. After losing big today, I realized that there were still plenty of opportunities left and I just had to wait for the correct setup that didn't break my rules. The range problem usually disappears once the volume dies out and it is the low risk high reward setups that usually take care of the high price. Trading with 100 shares seems much more doable with the right setups.

What rules that I break?
1. I have an unofficial rule that prohibits me from trading when I am not feeling well or tired. This is something I thought of that I probably will work on today formally because fatigue definitely affects trading in a negative way. I usually trade through fatigue because I like to trade, but I think it definitely played a part of my downfall. If I had a proper rule in place, I would have been better off.

2. I did not manage my risk correctly and was simply not thinking in the morning. The damn chart was over $90s and I didn't even bother to calculate my risk. I went straight in like a fish and got slaughtered. I just didn't bother with risk management in the morning because I was lazy. This laziness cost me $2.00 a share.

How do I plan to fix it?
This is a huge hole in my trading that must be fixed. I was totally unprepared in the morning, so I will make a list of rules I will read in the morning everyday so I don't forget.

Ticker: GWPH

This was the daily chart.

Note: The news was meh at best. I knew the move was overdone because there was really nothing else for traders to do today.

My poor plays.

Note: I should have stopped trading it after my initial fuck up. However, the urge to get back from this chart was strong. This was my biggest mistake, I should have left it alone until the chart was in my favor. 

Note: I realize my mistake and wait for the best setups. At this time, the volatility was high so I should have just waited for it to die down a little more for a good setup.

Missed opportunity.

Note: Instead of taking this off my watch. I should have kept it on and waited for a good setup like this. Since I took it off because of my stupid beliefs, I missed this golden opportunity to actually make good money. 

Notice a mistake? Let me know below! 

Reset

The moon and the sky taken in Bagnara Calabra.

My mind burned out from trading and needed a reset. So, I took off and traveled to Italy with a few friends.

Did I have the money for that? Not really, but it was worth every penny.

I went off the grid for three weeks and really tried hard to soak it all in. I learned that I didn't really need to try at all. All I needed was to relax and I never understood that until now. I worry way too much and it affects my trading. It causes me not to give trades a real shot and to get out of them prematurely. Worrying makes me a bad trader and the only solution is to relax.

I'd like to thank Italy for realizing that and resetting my brain. It was much needed and I would go back in a heartbeat if I could. But for now, I think it's time for me to trade consistently.

16th-19th: Poor Exits

Summary

My confidence has been shattered and I will not be making any money until I get it back. My entries have improved, but my exits have turned into shit.  I have not been letting my trades test out my ideas. I must be patient once I enter the trade and allow it to work!

What must I do?

1. I must work on being patient with the trade and realize when a good exit actually is. I used to be better at my exits, but now it seems I get scared out by any type of movement. 

Ticker: FRAN

 Terrible.

Note: I was only risking 30 cents. There was no reason to cover this early. Everything was in my head because I was thinking how not to lose.

Ticker: ANDE

Gapped up and missed the squeeze. Missed the pullback as well. 

  

My entry wasn't  the best, but I was just risking 42 cents worse case.

Note: There was no reason to cover.

Ticker: SONC

There was a push and I got out because I panicked.

Note: There was a better exit and I panicked before I was able to get out at a better price. This was stupid. I should be calm when I am wrong and wait for the best exit.

Notice a mistake? Let me know below! 

11th: Wrong Risk Levels

Summary

I am not giving the stocks enough room to breathe. This is due to poor entry and poor risk assessment. I am also not taking advantage of my long opportunities. I must realize that I can make money going both ways.

What will I do?
1. I will take more long trades when they present themselves to me. I must be absolutely comfortable before getting to the trade. Any slight stress can cause me to play it wrong.

2. I really must assess the risk more carefully. I developed a system to do that so I can be more accurate with my risk assessment. Once I assess the risk more successfully, I must take the trade by taking fantastic entries. I mustn't be scared that the price is close to my risk because that is the least riskiest.

3. I will once again try writing out my ideas and will slap myself 5 times if it breaks my rules.

Ticker: M

My plan should have been different and I should have risked towards $34.50s. That would have prevented a poor entry and early shakeout. I should not be adding until I am actually right and in the money. I suppose in this situation it was okay.

Note: I gave this trade no room to breathe and paid the price. I added in when I wasn't comfortable so that also led to my demise. 

Note: This trade would have worked out if my risk assessment was done properly. I would have had a better entry and would not have been scared out. When I short in the morning, I should short with less shares based towards my max risk. 

Ticker: ZIOP

The plan was to risk $9.50s over/under. It should have been fucking $9.

Note: Thus was shit planning on my part because parabolic moves usually push higher.

How I played it.

Note: Terrible! I didn't even let it test $9.50s over/under. I just got scared out. This was a terrible play. If I risked towards $9, it would have been no problem because my entry would have been better. 

Notice a mistake? Let me know below! 

Watchlist for 9th

Main Watch
SRPT - Looking for a consolidation in the morning and continuation long from yesterday.

HLF - Looking to short into any pops in the morning risking towards $66.

CVEO - I will short any pops in the morning risking towards $2.

EVHC - I will short any pops in the morning risking towards $24.

5th: Stick to the Plan!

Summary

I did not stick to my plan today. I ventured off and got my head chopped off. I must remember to always stick to my plan, always be patient with my entries, and always get out when I am wrong! I am close to figuring it out, but I am preventing myself to become successful. 

It's like every time I come close, my mind just shuts me down and transports me into a disarrayed state. I must figure out a way to re-focus my mind when this happens. 

My plan -- The few ways to reset?
Going to the gym is my way of bringing my mind back to a peaceful state. This may be the best method for me because it's been tried and proven.

Getting away from the computer is definitely a proven method to bring my mind back to focus. However, as my mind wanders, I don't think I can come back.

Worst case is maybe watching a movie or playing a game. However, these are time wasters if not done properly. 

Ticker: RYAM

I changed my plan as soon as I got in. My share sizing was based on a different plan. I should have got out as soon as I was wrong. Every second I wait is money drained from my account. 

Note: I must stick to my original plan. It's okay to get out if I am wrong because I can always get back in. My goal should always be to manage risk.

Note: I had a chance to get out earlier so I should have. I must take every opportunity the market gives me.

Ticker: VNET

I thought the stock will find some support at $19.

I was late too the party and played this with no setup.

Note: I should be patient and wait for the setup to come to me. I rushed and got a poor entry. If I feel the need to rush, I should take a step back and not take the trade. 

Ticker:  MUR

Random stock.

Note: I must stop playing these random stocks with NO setup or plan.

Notice a mistake? Let me know below!

Watchlist for 5th

Main Watch
WFM - Looking to buy out of the open and risking towards $28.65s over/under. Any dips afterwards if it trends upwards.

RYAM - Will be looking for a weak open and risk towards. If it pops, I will see if it peaks around $13.60s and risk $13.75s.


Side Watch
TSRA - If it opens weak, I will short because I think there will be some profit taking like the other times.

TPUB - Offer by Gannett was rejected, I am interested to seeing how the stock will react to that. 

Watchlist for 4th

Main Watch
SRPT - Looking to short on weakness in the morning.

TSRA - If it opens weak, I will short because I think there will be some profit taking like the other times.

Side Watch
AAPL - I think a consolidation like today and a continuation from yesterday is appropriate.

2nd: Terrible Trading

Summary

I had a head start again in the morning and turned it into shit. I think my plans for the morning has become a bit better while I don't have any plans for the afternoon. If I want to play the afternoons, I must start scanning for stocks that I think will have a run in the afternoon. Stocks like SRPT where the daily chart didn't look half bad with a solid thesis behind it.

A trade with a thesis is something VinnyB always stresses and I agree. I think I am not doing well in the afternoon is because I never made any plans for those trades. They are ALL random! 

What will I do?

After today's loss, I have developed an aggressive money management strategy that is based on my current account size. It will help push the pace of my trading progress and help me finally define my risks/rewards where before I had nothing.

I will only play stocks I have a plan on. No more afternoon plays with no solid plans. I know I said it before, but now I must mean it. I will fail if I continue what I am doing and my account will reflect it. I have been reviewing my watchlist and some have been working. I will continue to post these and improve it as time goes on. 

I have discovered some of my ways to waste time and will eliminate them from my life. Time is a precious thing and I must use every second productively.

Ticker: DRYS

I shorted cause I just thought it was an unwarranted pop. There was no plan here.

Note: There was no solid plan here. It's a type of chart I should stay away from. It took back the money I made from it.

Note: There are times I know I am wrong and the chart gives me an opportunity to exit. I must take those opportunities.

Ticker: BRCD

I had no plan here and entered poorly. I got out because I realized that.

Note: SSR was on so I should have been patient when I missed my opportunity in the first minute. If I miss a trade, then I miss a trade. I must not chase it!

Note: I must realize that a bad entry is no go. If I miss a trade, then I simply miss a trade!

Ticker: ULTR

I saw an ABCD pattern here and decided to give it a shot. This was NOT a good play because the 15 minute chart did not support it. The pattern was broken and I still didn't get out.

Note: I noticed that ABCDs work when Cs last longer. This is because it has a longer time to consolidate. The plays I play are usually good shorts.

Note: I was given a gift by the chart to get exit and I didn't take it like an idiot. I was there hoping and that got me killed. I must realize when my idea doesn't work to GET OUT!

I got killed for playing the lull.

Note: I was looking for a short, but got killed. It wasted 3 hours of my life and had no volume. I shouldn't play this bullshit.

Note: My original plan was to see $0.55s peak, but I just rushed into the trade. I must WAIT for the trade to come to me!

Notice a mistake? Let me know below!

29th: Lucky Win

Summary

I was lucky today that it was a red day for the SPY. Otherwise, I would have fucked up badly.

Ticker: GILD

The idea was that it was going to head lower. This was on my watchlist.

GILD - I'll short on weakness in the morning for a quick washout. Otherwise, I will wait for a pattern to form afterwards to either go long if a trend forms or short.

I didn't follow my plan at all because I did not take my profits for a quick washout. I did not cover to break even when it went against me. I didn't do anything like an idiot.

Note: I should take account on what the pre-market did to see how the morning would react. The drop was already big, so I guess I could have guessed for some kind of bounce.

Note: I was way too slow to take profits and was in too much size due to the no odd lot restriction. I was already in a losing situation when I decided to play this stock. The best I could have done would be instantly cover if it didn't work and cover quickly if it did work. I did neither and lost big because my plan was NOT defined.

Note: The morning losses affected my play significantly on the trades after. My mind was no longer with me and I just took what I could instead of looking at the big picture.

Note: I should wait for the trade to come to me and if it doesn't, then it doesn't.

Ticker: SRCL

My prior losses definitely affected my play here.

Note: I should be objective and should not let emotions affect me after a significant loss. I must have a solid game plan before entering trades.

Note: I covered way too early in my first trade and should have added in given the trend it was in. My second exit was decent, but I should have anticipated for the $95 break really before covering.

Note: I was just happy I didn't give up trading for the day after the first trade. I just kept going saying that I can still make up. 

 

Got something to say? Say it below!

Watch for 29th

I must remember consistency is the key. I must continue these watchlists to give myself the best chance of success.

Main Watch
ORIG - If oil looks weak tomorrow, then I will be looking to short the open or any pops afterwards.

DRYS - I will short at the open if it looks weak tomorrow risking towards $4.

GILD - I'll short on weakness in the morning for a quick washout. Otherwise, I will wait for a pattern to form afterwards to either go long if a trend forms or short.

Side Watch
BCOR - I will be watching for a continuation and will be getting in on any consolidations.

26th: Poor Risk Assessment

Summary

I played some hard stocks to get ahead today, but I gave it all up because of what? I had no reason to play anything after 11am and the setups were terrible. What the fuck am I trying to prove here? My stops aren't even in the right place. Why the fuck am I not letting the chart prove itself to me?

When I am wrong, I will know it. I can't anticipate being wrong because I don't know if I am wrong until I am wrong! I must let the trade pan out.

I have two more things to work on and they are:
1. Setting up the correct risk for each trade. There is no excuse for not doing this because my position sizing has been getting better.
2. Actually let the risk test out before getting out. Usually, the trade either works or I can get out at a better price than the bottom or top.

Ticker: DD

The risk should have been $67. I did not learn my lesson from fucking last time.

Note: All my troubles would have been gone if I had risked towards $67 over/under. I got scared by the stuff and did not give the chart the chance to prove me wrong.

Note: Even stuffs can fails. Everything in the market can fail and I must realize that. There is nothing that is 100% and I must let the chart prove it to me.

Ticker: WHR

I fucking shorted into a fucking dip. WTF was I thinking?

Note: I was not paying attention to the 5 and 15 minute charts. WTF was I thinking shorting this when I should have been relaxing

Note: I really shouldn't be playing anything after 11 or even near 11 because that's when I have been statistically proven to fail. Why the fuck did I play this? I had nothing to prove at this point.

Note: There was no volume!

Ticker: PRGO

THERE IS NO PLAY HERE!

Note: When I am feeling like shit after a bad play. I will shut down my computer.

Note: There was NO PLAY here and even when there is NO PLAY, I must exit out my position PROPERLY by letting it test $100 over/under.

Got something to say? Say it below!

Watchlist for 26th

I must continue to be consistent in order to get better at trading.

Notes
I didn't expect AMD to fall like that today, but given the charts history, it is something I should have anticipated. The chart gave a good setup for a short and I wasn't prepared for it.

EBIO was a clear miss because I disregarded it since it was on my side watch. I must review all my watch list charts in the morning or else I wasted my time.

Main Watch
VKTX - I am still looking for either a gap towards $2.20s or parabolic towards there. Same plan as yesterday. Consolidation with volume pop and long or gap and short.

MCUR - Same plan with VXTX, but will be looking for that consolidation or fade/reclaim in the morning if it doesn't gap.

PRGO - I will be looking for a STX style bounce in the morning and more fades.

XRX - Same thing as PRGO. I will be looking for more fades after a bounce in the morning.

LGCY - Looking to short into any stuffs in the morning and risk towards $3.

Side Watch
NEOT - I might short if it looks weak. 

25th: Stop Too Tight

Summary

I missed out on a huge move, because I planned my risk like an idiot.

Ticker: PRGO

Looking to short the bounce and I got in a bit early. I had good sizing, but I had the wrong risk. I risked high of day instead of risking off whole and dollar marks.

Note: I should risk off of whole and half dollar marks for higher priced stocks.

Note: I should be watching higher time frame charts for higher priced stocks. 

Notice a mistake? Let me know below

Watchlist for 25th

This is my first published watchlist in a while. I will only focus on well thought out ideas from now on.

Main Watches
AMD - Looking for continued breakout.

VKTX - The daily looks okay, but really looking for some volume after consolidation to play long. If it gaps and already goes, I'll be looking to short around $2.25s+.

NGL - Looking for a pop and will short risking high of day.

Side Watches
EBIO - Not sure yet on what to do.

Playing Not To Lose

Nothing has changed. I have not learned from my own lessons and every trade I've been taking has been reinforcing my bad habits. I can't blame anyone but myself. My head is not in the right place because I have been playing not to lose.

My cycle has become losing confidence when I trade poorly, not trading when I lose confidence, and trading scared when I trade. This is the cycle to failure and I need to snap out of it. I must assume that all the money I put in the market is lost and trade with no pressure. Even if a trade doesn't work, it doesn't matter because there will always be a next trade. I just have to make sure my plan minimizes risk and trade correctly.

I have noticed that my two biggest problems right now have been my poor entries and sizing. These are the biggest culprits of how I am losing the majority of my money. These are the only two problems I will fix until they are eliminated. Once they are, then I will move on to my other problems.

I have been talking a lot of bullshit lately and haven't been taking action. Now I will take action.

18th,19th: Don't Short Weakness

Summary

I must keep working hard on eliminating my bad habits and building more confidence for my trading. The only thing left that is keeping me from winning is myself. Every minute I spend NOT sharpening my skills is time wasted and I don't have a chance in winning if I slack off. I might be laughing it off now, but I guarantee myself that I won't be laughing anymore if I blow it. 

I have to realize that the time I have now is a gift. I am the luckiest person in the world right now with a golden opportunity to succeed. There is no excuse to fail.

Ticker: C

How the chart looked like on the daily.

Note: The chart looked good for more weakness.

 

I should have realized the higher low coupled with the fact that the market was going higher and covered earlier.

Note: Covering earlier and eliminating my risk should have been my top priority. The action it gave me screamed that it wanted to go higher. Also the fact that the market was ripping upwards was a clear sign to get out.

 

Note: I must take whatever the market gives me and react accordingly.  

Ticker: PTCT

The daily chart

Note: The chart had some good potential of pushing up.

Horrible entry.

Note: I had no business playing this chart and had the worst entry I could possibly get. Luckily I noticed and got out early.

Ticker:NFLX

Horrible plays overall.

 Note: I shorted weakness for some reason and on a stock with SSR on. I didn't have wide enough risk and my risk vs. reward for each were horrible.

Ticker: PM

Horrible plays again

Note: What the fuck? I keep shorting weakness and longing pops. This should have been eliminated from my trading.

Note: I keep rushing into trades. I must chill and be patient. 

Notice a mistake? Let me know below!